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From next Monday the European Union (Amendment) Bill starts its second reading and a month of Parliamentary time has been set aside for it, no doubt on the assumption that everyone will get bored by it. As three line whips will abound and only 20 Labour MPs will oppose or abstain , the outcome is a foregone conclusion because the Tories will vote against and the Liberals will suck bottom and support the Government. As a strategy, Brown will push a vote on holding a referendum early on because the sheep will do as they are told then and once that is done, he will hope to open up divisions in the Tory ranks over the issue.

In all honesty, it is a totally frustrating as well as a farcical process of politicians burying their heads in the sand because it just delays the inevitable day of reckoning with the EU. The pathetic stance of Brown in not turning up for the official signing of the EU Constitution in Lisbon or taking part in the “celebrations” has just soured the atmosphere, poisoned relations with Brussels and in due course, the final terms negotiated over Britain’s departure from the EU which is inevitable unless, the EU implodes spontaneously in the interim.

The Tory Position

All the Tories have to do is to accept that the Government will pass this Bill to ratify this European Constitution, all the Conservatives have to do is keep themselves united. David Cameron has said that should this Bill pass and this Constitution get ratified EU wide, the Tory Party will not let it rest there. Wisely he has said so without being specific as to what “next steps” might be taken and quite rightly so too. His mistake would be to say in advance exactly what he would do which would lead to a conspiracy between the Labour Party and Brussels at the next General Election plus his leaving hostages to fortune.

The key phrase that Cameron has to repeat as frequently as needed is that no “Parliament has the right to bind a future Parliament” and therefore, a future one has the right to take a different view which it certainly will if it is one that has a Conservative Government. People seem to forget and most certainly Brussels seems unaware, that the next British Parliament could decide to repudiate any treaty and repeal any legislation that made it Law in the UK and that could happen overnight with the passing of an emergency Bill to suspend all Laws not compatible with the historical precedents of English/Welsh, Scottish and NI Law. Such a Bill could be passed before renegotiations with Brussels even started.

European Foreign Policy as seen by the F.O.

The Foreign Office strategy has always been that Britain should remain engaged in Europe to prevent an unholy carve up of the mainland between French and German interests to the detriment of the smaller or weaker ones and indeed, our own national interests. In truth, in the period between the end of WWII and during the Cold War, this wasn’t difficult, the Soviet Bloc focussed people’s minds however, post the Berlin Wall coming down and it all got rather more difficult. With few honourable exceptions, support from EU countries for NATO has been to say the least, pathetic and certainly falls short of deploying troops in “hot zones”. If preventing EU countries from “ganging up” on the UK and its vital interests was part of the intention of the FO, then that has failed repeatedly and over most issues, a pattern of behaviour that will be common under the majority voting rules of the EU Constitution.

An essential part of this post Cold War strategy was the goal of enlargement of the EU to the size it is now so that it became difficult to govern or to be dominated by any one country. Job done, time to get out in the near future and pursue our own interests not just in Europe which is fading economically, but globally where there is still money to be made. Free Trade is what has always suited Britain economically and in that sense, the EU is claustrophobic and anti-competitive and therefore, not where we shall be. Also, we need to get back to a proper parliamentary democracy in the UK where we the electorate are in charge and not a “benign ruling elite” in Brussels which is answerable to no one.

The Politics of it All

The reason that the Tories under William Haig as Leader made no impression with the electorate over “Saving the Pound” and other anti-EU slogans is that the EU was not considered a key issue with the electorate and even today, wouldn’t be. In the UK as right across many countries in the EU, there is a vague feeling of uncertainty concerning how the EU is run but it is difficult for people to put their finger on exactly what is wrong and what should be done.

In part, this is a tribute to the skills and abilities of the so called Civil Servants in Brussels to impose policies and edicts on what are supposed to be Parliamentary democracies without hearing a squawk because it is all neatly wrapped up before anybody knows what is happening. However and in all fairness though, it also points to a dearth of political talent right across all the countries of the EU that national parliaments are so supine and clueless. Unfortunately these political vacuums never last for long and although not necessarily coming from Germany, such circumstances will inevitably throw up a new ‘Bismark’ and the situation will change dramatically right across the Continent.

A Potentially Serious Problem

In the UK we can see that a highly combustible mix is brewing that could lead to serious problems and so much so that EU membership will become a hot political topic.

We have seen massive immigration, from within the EU that has put a lot of pressure on housing, schools and the general infrastructure and whilst the Government puts a positive spin on this in terms of economic activity, the figures do not seem to deliver a positive outcome for the indigenous population in terms of jobs, housing, education, health care or wealth creation, in fact all these things are being squeezed.

On top of this, the wage policies of the Government in the Public sector and the fact that immigrants will take lower wages thus not just holding inflation down but also wages generally and the mix gets a little more toxic. Gordon Brown personally as Chancellor has pursued economic policies that have increased Government borrowings to stratospheric levels, not spent the money wisely, kept none in reserve and done so by quoting fairytale inflation figures and depressing income by ever higher taxes. The bottom line is that there is a pent up demand for higher wages that will most certainly lead to much higher inflation in the near future.

The final blow would be an economic downturn that led to substantial job losses which would also impact the public sector as much if not more so, than the private and wealth creation part of the economy. The stage would then be set for civil unrest and a demand for better control of our borders , laws and economic destiny. The EU may be of little interest to the average Briton but put this lot into the equation and that changes dramatically. If the EU is seen as the ‘problem’ and gets the blame, leaving the EU will become an unstoppable demand by the vast majority of the electorate and regardless of political persuasion.

If Brown was a smart politician which he has failed to demonstrate thus far and even less so as Prime Minister, he would take the Whips off and declare a free debate and vote right across the board. If Brussels complains all he has to say is that as promised, he is not giving the British people a vote but equally as promised, he is giving the people’s representatives in Parliament the final decision. In one move he stands aside from personal blame, whatever the outcome and by keeping his party united, forestalls any possibility of a “Motion of No Confidence” in his Government.