baldysblog.co.uk

David Cameron and his Front Bench Team do have a problem and a series of obstacles to overcome in dealing with the EU Constitution currently before the House on second reading. In a very particular sense, between the lobby fodder on the Labour bank benches and the “Quisling” tendencies of the LibDems, the only party the country can rely on to approach the EU conundrum sensibly, are the Tories but even then, Cameron has to keep his own supporters in check.

I suspect that the majority view in these islands, is not for a complete break, nor the current EU integration where the continental countries are sleep walking into some present day version of the Hapsburg Empire. What most Britons want is cordial and friendly relations but based upon a looser trading relationship founded upon mutual respect fot our different ways and customs but also to an eye for mutual interests.

An Integrated EU

A highly integrated EU is probably an ideal solution for some member states who may not yet feel secure within their own concept of democracy or indeed have the institutions to evolve it properly so being part of an integrated union, leapfrogs their development under a common framework that is familiar to a socialist culture which pervades the majority of Europe.

However, for the UK, with its long established democracy, supporting institutions, a totally different legal and cultural framework, membership has become a constant open wound in the British body politic. Time to heal it and therefore have much better relationships with Europe by being outside of the “political EU” which although they may miss the UK’s cash contribution, will not miss our constant reluctance to be part of it.

The Problem is Gordon Brown

Gordon Brown has probably accepted that he will never win a General Election so the next one is likely to be Summer 2010. I’m not saying this to be “beastly” to Brown but between his “Non Election”, it’s aftermath and now the EU Constitution farrago, he has shown no political flair or grasp of the basics of the game, Blair would have handled things far better. And gradually although one would wish better for us all, his one boast of fiscal mastery seems to be unravelling at an ever increasing pace.

Gordon is not for turning because he lacks political nous and is stubborn, the only one thing that would get his attention is losing the job he has coveted for so long. I was particularly struck by some of what Cameron said in an interview with the Times today, the topic was the extension of the powers of detention but when you think about it, Cameron is describing a principle which seems common to all Brown’s actions:

Mr Cameron referred to Mr Brown as “that strange man in Downing Street” and accused him of playing politics with anti-terror measures. However he strongly criticised Brown’s support for extending the period that terrorism suspects can be held without charge for up to 42 days – a move opposed by Tories, Lib Dems and some Labour MPs.

“I am afraid that he sees this as a totally political weapon: let us try and make the Tories look soft on terror. That is my problem with our prime minister: he looks at every single issue from the point of view of what is the right dividing line that divides me from my opponent, not what is right for the country, and I think that is what he is doing here.”

Now it would be totally reasonable to discount Cameron’s words on the basis that his words are “just politics” but I don’t think that we should because and regardless of political affiliations, the behaviour of Brown does seem to bear out his words and this EU nonsense is a case in point. So let us go back to the start of this total cock up and retrace the steps along the way.

The Road to Hell

It all starts with Brown’s slavering over the Prime Minister’s job like Gollum in the Lord of the Rings over “The Ring”and Tony Blair’s long farewell. A farewell long enough to ensure that he would as a final act of betrayal to Britain,’negotiate’ the UK’s position on the revised EU Constitution. Blair was ever slimy but his departure from Parliament meant that he he was a man hungry for position and money, and the “Middle East Peace Envoy” is a stipend rather than a meaningful role. No doubt the potential (softly spoken and intimated privately), of being the first EU President, was temptation too much.

He set out during these negotiations to tie Brown in so that he, on becoming PM, could not change the Labour Governments position and therefore deprive Blair of becoming a modern day Cardinal Richelieu by ascending to the European Presidency. So even in his parting and as he had done ever since the “Granola Moment”, he bamboozled Brown and eventually, Gordon came to know it. Brown considers himself an “intellect” and Blair a “lightweight” so for Gordon to realise that he has lost every encounter over 13-14 years, must be a bit of a p***er for him.

Brown as King of the Hill

However, Brown’s early days went well for him and he quickly realised that he could probably win a snap General Election and have his own mandate but pride will have it’s fall. Gordon had attended many Party Conferences but he wanted this one most of all, the one where he stood tall for the first time as the “Leader”, his moment in the Sun and 15 minutes of fame. He gave one of the most boring and lacklustre of speeches heard at any party conference that year and still he dithered over calling the election. Party workers were briefed, volunteers from every constituency put on alert whilst they were all gathered, a pre-budget statement put together and government business rearranged for an imminent election.

And the following week, his potential success was thrown into doubt by the Tory Party Conference, his moment had come and gone, most likely forever. He then compounded it with obvious lies which was totally foolish. If he said, “Of course I was going to call an election but when the polls turned, with two and a half years left to run, I said that bugger that I’ll wait, that is what politics is all about.” The country would have laughed with him instead, they laughed at him.

Brown doesn’t actually understand that putting your head down and “getting on with it”, will not lead to success or the acclaim of the general public for being a ‘steadfast chap’, this is not Tom Brown’s School Days it’s politics and he has already lost. When the Summer of 2010 has come with Labour losing the election, he will be done because the Party will want a new leader and he will have had his time. New Labour has always been a spiteful government, it shows in the legislation it has passed over 10 years so for Brown to see the world as Cameron commented “he looks at every single issue from the point of view of what is the right dividing line that divides me from my opponent…” is correct.

The EU Constitution, in weasel words, the Lisbon Treaty

Let us consider the EU Constitution Bill before Parliament right now. Clearly this should have been put to a referendum as promised by all parties in their various manifestos at the last election and all the justifications as to why it isn’t necessary are just lies. However, it was agreed by Brussels and the Heads of Government that it would not be put to a referendum in any country which didn’t have a legal requirement to do so, like Ireland so Brown won’t have one and his mentality is “just to ride it out” which is foolish but there you go.

He cannot be forced to call a referendum because not only does he suspect his time is up, a lot of his backbenchers sitting in marginal seats know that after the next election, they’re not coming back either. There will be about 20 Labour MPs who will revolt but the majority will be supine and like their boss, hang on to the gravy train as long as possible. Also the “Quisling Party” of the LibDems have always loved Europe, doubt their numbers post the next election and will also vote with the Government and ignore their manifesto pledge as well.

The Government has set aside 20 days to debate this Bill and the question must be why ? Unlike any other legislation bought before the House, this Bill can accept no amendments, the EU Constitution has to be swallowed whole and as is or, rejected. Given that Brown has an unassailable majority even if the Quislings abstain and regardless of anything said in debate or any view the public may have, this Bill is going to pass. So why bother with the farce of debate ? Brown is hoping that by letting it run long enough, the Tories and there are many with highly vociferous views on this, will brake ranks and start talking in extremist terms that will alienate the public and take them down in the polls.

The point is that Brown has nothing to play with, no vision to sell, no new ideas and devoid of the possibility of being open about mistakes Labour has made in the past because he is the culprit, he is a desperate man that foolishly accepted a poisoned chalice from his predecessor. His and the Labour Party’s only hope is to get Tory backbenchers to misbehave and defy Cameron but Brown has a short memory, Blair got him and all the other left wing loonies to hold their tongues for the promise of power.

Turn Defence into Attack

Cameron said quite wisely that if he came to power before the EU Constitution was ratified EU wide, he would give the public their referendum if not, he would not let it rest there but didn’t specify what the latter meant. Given that it will be a good 2 years before an election, Cameron has to be vague on policy detail, Labour will steal any good ideas and claim them as their own but that doesn’t mean that the Tories can’t choose ground the Government will not fight on and the EU is a classic case in point. Instead of it being something divisive to the Conservatives, it can become a tool to further isolate Brown and Labour whilst at the same time dealing a mortal blow to the EU Constitution itself.

If David Cameron accepts that eventually this Bill will get passed, on the basis that the Conservatives will be the next Government, why not be bold ? Why not attack Brown and the LibDems but not by saying, “We shall leave the EU !” that would frighten people but what could be said is:

“You the electorate have been deprived of the Referendum you were promised by all parties on this EU Constitution and because of the Government’s current majority in the House, aided and abetted by the LibDems, this Bill will be foisted on you whether you want it or not. We do not know whether you will elect us as the next Government but if you do, we will promise you a referendum not just on this Constitution but on the basis of our relationship with the EU going forward because it is time this matter was settled for once and all. Under the terms of this constitution, there is the possibility of a nation renegotiating its relationship with the EU.

We will put together a team that will start the preparatory work to explore a change in the UK relationship with the EU and getting the outline terms agreed in principle. Our aim would be that some time after the next General Election, if we are the Government, we will be able to put before the British people a clear choice on remaining a full member of the EU with all that means to the legal and political future of the UK or, a looser trading relationship with very close cooperation on matters of mutual interest such as, fishing, energy, pollution, global warming etc but, the UK would no longer be part of the “Political EU”.

We would allow a reasonable time of 6 months or even a year for the choices to be presented and debated right across these islands before the Referendum was held but whatever the outcome, that decision made by the British People, would be binding on Parliament.”

The effect of this would be to keep the extreme right of the Tory Party under control, make the Government look very weak and also act as a very clear shot across the bows of Brussels to discourage further encroachment and also to ensure their full cooperation with what may well be the future UK Government.