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Yes, I will admit that I am not a Gordon Brown fan but all my vitriol is not personal in the terms of wishing him any physical harm, I just want him to go away – forever. The reason that I pose the question is that following on from the “Embryology Row” I had one of those “What’s going on ?” moments and started thinking back to the less than a year since the One Eyed One, finally mounted the throne and pinnacle of all his desires by becoming Prime Minister.

The problem is that Gordon singing “Happy Days are Here Again” and dancing around No.10 in his jim jams, just cannot hide the fact that he has made a total cods of his chance at the job, truly the cream has risen until it soured. As he “gets on with the job”, he leaves a trail of unforced blunders and errors of which getting lost in Windsor Castle at a State Banquet was probably the least.

A Question of Luck ?

Undeniably there is a random element in life which you can call “luck” when the circumstances are such that positive action leads to greater things.

“There is a tide in the affairs of men, Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life Is bound in shallows and in miseries.”

Perhaps the above quote describes Brown well, he had earlier opportunities to oust Blair in a ‘Palace Coup’ but didn’t and it is said, instead waged a childish war of attrition though not realising that in doing so, he was destroying his own inheritance so that in the end his final victory was totally “Pyrrhic” in its nature. Also with “luck” the reality of success lies in both seeing the opportunity in the first place and then, seizing it with both hands boldly, looking to neither right nor left but forward only, none of these words and actions describe Gordon Brown.

Euphoria and No Plan

The biggest mistake that the Parliamentary Labour Party made was in not putting up two or three candidates to oppose Brown for the leadership, instead we saw an unseemly scramble for the Deputy Leadership. If they had challenged him, perhaps Brown would have been forced to “explain” what he was going to do if elected, to both them, the public at large and most likely himself. Just as importantly, it would have demonstrated that the Parliamentary Labour Party had some depth in terms of talent which does not appear to be the case, all the “Big Beasts” having left with Blair and there being no obvious candidate to replace Brown if his health failed.

As he awaited his coronation, what he certainly didn’t do was to properly prepare for a “Brown Labour Government”. Cosmetic gestures to a “Government of All the Talents” was a weak attempt to outdo early Blair and “Cool Britannia” – silly sod. As the effective ‘alternative power’ in the previous Labour Government, Gordon was always going to have a problem promoting both “continuity and change” but, it could have been done and he had particular strengths and track record to build upon.

A good example was the “Euro”, Blair would have joined in an instant, Brown had his “famous tests” so, Brown could have promoted an image of his being “co-operative to the EU but sceptic” on “our behalf”. He also could have taken a positive approach towards issues such as ID Cards and Anti-Terrorist legislation by opening up the whole debate with a “Let’s talk about this together and work out a sensible balance between Law and Liberty.” The point that I’m making is that he could have made a personal pitch which combined with the electorate quite happy to give the “new man” a chance or honeymoon, would build a fairly solid Brown Platform to move forward from.

The UK Electorate

It is correct to say that ‘hindsight’ is 20/20 vision but to be honest, if I were a Labour supporter and if I had been ‘HIM’, I would never have missed these opportunities, all the detailed planning would have been long done with only the fine tuning to match the mood and the moment required. I am frankly amazed to write that it appears both he and his close supporters did miss the lot and in doing so, Brown lost the game completely and with that, his teams future prospects don’t look too bright either.

The British electorate should never be taken lightly, they have a collective “resonance” that only politicians seem to be unaware of. Blair and Labour most likely ‘hoped’ but didn’t expect to win in 1997 and most certainly by the margin they did. However, from that “High Dawn of Expectation” they went downhill and only Blair’s “Honest Joe” act kept them going until that was hit hard by Iraq. Looking back to 1997, Blair later commented that he was never bold enough and wish he had been with hindsight, yes he was right, he had a golden opportunity that he flunked.

There is an ‘oddity’ with the British electorate as they will vote the previous Government out which is what happened when both Maggie and Blair came to Office, the ‘incoming’ government was given the space to sort itself out and established itself but whilst ‘foibles’ may be tolerated, major mistakes are not accepted during this period, a degree of competence is required.

How To Mess Up Properly

Brown did not ‘establish himself’ during this honeymoon period and then set out upon a series of amazing “mistakes” any of which might be ‘forgiveable’ but collectively were not.

The first big screw-up was the “Election That Never Was”. If within a couple of weeks Brown had sought a “personal mandate” from the electorate in a short, sharp campaign, he most certainly have got a good working majority of some kind and a 5 year run. A fastidious attention to polling plus a good policy speech from Osborne and an even better one from Cameron seems to have led him to doubt the strength of his position.

There was no particular reason that he should have called a General Election at that time unless, during the process by which he was elected leader of the Labour Party, he had announced his intention to “Seek a personal mandate from the electorate” at the earliest possible moment which, may not have pleased many back bench members with marginal seats. My own view at the time was that although there is no hard and fast rules on this, I think given his majority and the fact there was almost 3 years left to run on this Parliament, the Queen would have been within her rights to refuse a dissolution of Parliament.

However, having changed government business, made a totally crap Conference speech, gone to visit the troops in Iraq and all that malarkey, to suddenly back off because of a few polls and deny that was the reason whilst saying that it wasn’t his intention anyway, was what cost him dear and ended his honeymoon in a day. It wasn’t him being called “Bottler Brown”, it was his personal and public dishonesty over the reasons he gave for not going ahead with the election he so obviously intended.

If he had said that yes he was going to but decided that he didn’t want to risk reducing his majority when there was no need to, he would have been seen as pragmatic and strong, his denial made him look like a school boy caught out in a lie and therefore weak. However you stack it, that defining moment was when it all went “Pete Tong” for both him and the Labour Party.

And Since…

The “Great Clunking Fist” became “Mr Bean” and in doing so, with each step attracting all sorts of issues and problems that divert attention from the real issues such as the EU Constitution or the “Embryo Business” which is but the latest. And even today, in giving a “climbdown on the 3 key issues” for Labour MPs, attracts loud and very public dissatisfaction from both sides of the argument because he got it totally wrong from the beginning. The original legislation which most certainly needs updating, goes back to 1990 and a Tory Government which gave a free vote from outset, despite it being a Government Bill.

The simple truth is that if politics is the art of the possible, Gordon has no idea what is possible and therefore no political ‘feel’ by which he may guide himself. He is like someone who gets 3 stripes on his arm and then imagines as a consequence, everyone will obey his “rank” whereas true leadership is based upon a balance of mutual respect which Brown doesn’t grasp.

The Result

Someone on the Labour back benches has described Brown as an Albatross in a tartan waistcoat who should be persuaded to retire on ill health grounds and whilst I would agree with that in one respect because whilst wishing him no harm, physically I don’t see Brown as being “up for the gig” he is ageing visibly in the job. What can happen next is not very predictable, replacing Brown at this stage is hardly feasible plus Labour is very short of any talent and if Brown stepped down now, who have they got to replace him ? The answer is nobody.

It is said that Black Wednesday and Britain leaving the ERM damaged the Tory Party as the one which was “good with the economy”. The current financial upheaval and its consequences will have the same effect on Gordon Brown’s reputation and as John Major found out, once the rot has set in everything and every story just exacerbates the problems and reinforces the negatives. ID Cards, The EU Constitution Referendum, MPs Expenses, a poor Mr Speaker, Cover Ups, bad Parliamentary tactics, getting lost in Windsor Castle – it just goes on and on – Mr Bean goes to Parliament.