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The Labour by-election campaign in Crewe and Nantwich has thrown up one of the oddest examples of completely missing the plot, this country has ever seen in recent years. Whoever thought that dressing up people as “toffs” to follow the Tory candidate around to emphasise that he comes from a wealthy background, needs to be fired.

It was made even stranger by the facts that came out about the Timpson Family as a result such as his “stinking rich parents”, fostering about 80 children over the years and he as a Barrister doing lots of Legal Aid cases – not quite the best paid work available, one might note. Plus Tamsin Dunwoody is not a patch on her Mother, who on earth thought ‘parachuting in’ that daft cow would keep up the Labour vote, another candidate who was a “Street fighter for Labour” might have done a whole lot better.

But in sense, this inverted snobbery has been so much a part of the whole “New Labour” ethos as the Fox Hunting Ban demonstrated all too clearly. To anyone with half a brain, to see Labour MPs who represent mainly urban seats where the activity never takes place, piling in to ban fox hunting when clearly it was an issue that should be devolved to the local not the national level, was both childish and foolish. Like money, political capital can be spent too and Labour has wasted theirs on such “wanker issues” just as it has wasted the taxpayer’s money.

Just One By-Election

Historically all Governments suffer from losing by-elections during mid-term with substantial swings against them so for the Tories Crewe & Nantwich is a “jolly good gain” but no guarantee of the results from a General Election and for Labour, not a total disaster either, it hasn’t cost them their majority. However and that said, it is clear that the Labour Leadership is “in denial” and does need to get a grip if their party is going to come through intact.

The key problem highlighted by last night’s results needs to be addressed which is that Labour has totally lost touch with the electorate; it just doesn’t understand them any longer, if ever it did and they (the electorate), know it. The real problem was not really the 10p tax issue, that had been fed into the system over a year ago and few people picked up on it at the time but it did become symbolic in a number of ways.

It was Gordon Brown in his last Budget as Chancellor who actually abolished it and the unseemly scramble to unpick the consequences by apparently borrowing an additional +£2 Billion, has totally shot Brown’s credibility as being “Good with the Economy” because this was self-inflicted. People may grumble about rising food and energy prices but they know that these are largely outside of the Government’s gift, this cock up wasn’t, it was a time bomb waiting to go off.

Incapability Brown

The harsh truth is that the message that has come across and is commonly held by the majority whether a Labour or Conservative supporter, is that Gordon Brown is just not up to the job. It is important to understand that you may offer any number of rational explanations as to why this is so, you may plunder his psychological profile all you like but the “why” is irrelevant, the fact “that it is so…” is all that counts.

I can remember being in the first year at grammar school we got a new young maths teacher, my form had him first and with the merciless behaviour young children are capable of, tore him to shreds because he couldn’t command respect, I can’t remember him finishing the year. Like sharks smelling blood in the water, we just knew and like my class, the public looking at Gordon Brown also know…

His mistake during his years at the Treasury was to live in an ivory tower and become a virtual recluse; he didn’t groom himself for the political rough and tumble, didn’t build the broad personal relationships so important in top management, and probably never understood the need. He resented playing the “straight man” in the Tony & Gordon double act, underestimated the job of PM and overestimated his abilities to deliver.

Changing the Leader

The Labour Party needs to understand that whether now or in two years time after a General Election has been lost, Brown will have to be got rid of. To do it now may be a clever exercise in “damage limitation”, leave it until after a lost election and who knows what will be left to work with.

However a note of caution for all political parties, the British electorate is very sophisticated and has a peculiar “collective consciousness” and I would not bet against a hung Parliament or a Tory Government with a working majority of around 50. The ‘bright new dawn’ of 1997 when Blair was handed an unbelievable majority which was largely wasted in terms of what was achieved in that first Labour Parliament, is still remembered and may yet echo in May 2010.

Oddly, I suspect that Cameron is aware of this and would prefer “Good Old Gordon” to still be PM come the run up to the May 2010 General Election because Labour will look so jaded then, it will become a “slam dunk” for Dave. As few people probably read my blog, with apologies to Dave Cameron, the following is the recipe for a “Labour Party” survival plan.

The Key Labour Problem

For well over a decade, the Labour Party has been dominated by Blair, Brown and their various struggles a direct consequence of which is that no “new talents” have been developed, this party has a dearth of leadership or even ‘administrative’ potential. The Parliamentary Party divided into “Blair or Brown Camps” the upshot of which is quite appalling, if Brown was assassinated tomorrow (about the only way he would leave the job), who could take over, consider the possibilities ! Well let’s not even bother, there aren’t any and that does need attending to, over time, I may be a Tory by nature but I don’t want to live in a one party state.

Gordon is a Moron…

The real problem that Brown didn’t even start to grasp before taking on the PM role was that he had absolutely no “wriggle room” when it came to major policies. There was absolutely no way he could ditch any major “Blair Policy” because after 10 years as the No.2 they were “his policies too” whether he liked it or not. Ultimately, even if he was a capable Prime Minister which he is not, faced with the Local Election, London Mayoralty and now the Crewe & Nantwich results, there have to be major changes in both policies and directions which cannot be done with Brown around – an Albatross in a tartan waistcoat indeed.

A fresh and untainted face is needed and one that can possibly command some respect with the more traditional and Trade Union supporters but, not a pushover for them either – Alan Johnson ? I don’t know and frankly don’t care but clearly it is time to clean out the “fancy Nancy’s” such a Milibands, Balls/Cooper, Kelly, Blears, Harmon etc.

Whoever they are, they must not be a Blair/Brown acolyte because they need to disassociate themselves from both.

Policy Changes

Given the contortions of the “Labour Constitution”, it will take from today, the best part of 6 months to unseat Brown because he won’t go willingly – this job that he is useless at, is highly personal, he would rather destroy the Labour Party than ‘walk’. A new leader would only be left with an 18 month window of opportunity to make an impact so, what to do ?

Major Government projects are not just expensive but also, very longwinded so there is little impact that can be made there in 18 months but there are some low cost options that have major impacts psychologically. It is a case of “We will do if…we get the chance…”

Of these the classic one is the EU Constitution, still to this day I think Brown was totally out of his mind on this one, his “signing in private” – what was that all about ? What a plonker, in that very moment he demonstrated that he was unfit for Office. However a new Leader could say that we will ratify now but defer any commitment to enforce the terms within the UK, we do so that for those who wish it, the “EU Constitution” can proceed but, as part of that document contains renegotiating procedures; “We promise to renegotiate our terms to “Trade Only” and after the next Election, do solemnly swear to the British people that the choice to remain as part of the ‘political EU’ or, move to a “Trade Only” relationship with the EU with UK Law being supreme will be put to them in a binding (upon Parliament), Referendum.

ID Cards – Suspend and Review – cross party committee, cheap but effective.

The Human Rights Act – A Total Review, cross party committee to document cases.

Devolution – How has it worked, where can it be improved and using existing Local Government structures, how can devolved decision taking be applied to England.

Overall, a simple series of steps that would be significant and even if Labour were voted out, it might be by 200 fewer rather than 300.

The Bottom Line

Gordon Brown is toast, move on, minimise the damage, maximise the potential opportunities and bring the party back in touch with its grassroots. If I were a Labour Party supporter, this is what I would do but, it is not what they will do for a certainty. The unrest on the back benches is caused by fear of losing their jobs, the Cabinet and the Prime Minister the same, there is no honour when little piggy’s have their nose in the trough.

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