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Perhaps it is just a symptom of me transmuting into a Grumpy Old Man but I increasingly find myself irritated by the average political journalist and TV pundit, they are so lightweight and pointless in the “reporting” they do that you wonder why they bother. I suspect it is all driven by a 24 hours news agenda and cutting news programmes down to once every 6 hours in 24, would probably cut out most of the drivel. Still it did lead to me speculating about other things…

Gordon Brown One Year on and the Labour Party

There has been a very high percentage of “Let’s Kick Brown…” type articles, even by people who are theoretically sympathetic to Labour if not actually part of it. Getting rid of Brown was a common theme and although I would love to see the end of this disgraceful Parliament through a general election, it is probably better to let the current economic circumstances play themselves out so that both the Tories and the Public know just how difficult things will have to be in the short term.

From a Labour perspective and if they accept that they will lose big time in 2010, there is a case to be made that dumping Brown quickly, whilst it will not stave off that loss, may well mitigate it somewhat and give a ‘clean slate’ from which to rebuild following the defeat. Unfortunately or not according to one’s views, there is a major problem here  which is that the Labour Party has no talent; it currently just does not have the people, credible people to offer the electorate as leaders bearing in mind that you need to present a “Team”.

To illustrate the point, in Gordon Brown Labour has a dominant politician but one surrounded by non-entities and the proof is the “assassination test” who would be the obvious person to takeover ? Answer: there no one; a General Election would be the best course of action for the Country.

The Seeds of Destruction

Some have written that it is the leadership weakness of Brown which is the cause but I disagree because the problem goes much further back to the time when Blair and Brown carved up the leadership issue between them. Argue it as you will but the simple truth is that the Blair/Brown tension in the late 90s led directly to the Blair and Brown opposing camps and therefore stifled all career development for Labour MPs and the emergence of a new generation of young Turks.

The consequence is that Labour has run out of both people and ideas at the same time and now desperately need 8-10 years on the Opposition Benches before they can even start to recover, repair the damage caused by Blair/Brown and renew themselves with a credible political voice. In fact their problem may be far worse than it appears because a number of the  potential candidates in the leadership battle by having been ‘involved’ in the demise of the Party and particularly if they were only left with 100-150 seats in the next Parliament, may well never have the chance, Miliband and Balls being obvious examples.

Will Brown Stand Down ?

Certainly not in my opinion although I am convinced that Brown has accepted that he will be defeated and that therefore the whole aim of any actions he takes are purely to hand a poisoned chalice to an incoming Conservative Government. In this regard he has already done a splendid job, with the amount of Government debt, a massive amount of pointless public sector jobs, the EU mess, 42 Days and any other pointless regulations he can drum up to make Britain totally uncompetitive between now and the day he leaves Downing Street.

Brown has ensured that if Cameron took over tomorrow morning, it would take him years to dig his way out of the shit Brown and Labour have left behind.

Tactical Politics

But to be honest, that is probably the way it should be as well as will be.

However, if the Labour Party Leadership was clever, they would sack Brown, elect a new and untainted Leader then call for a General Election immediately they have done so, fully expecting to lose but also knowing, that their potential losses will be far smaller than otherwise.

They would have a new leader who didn’t have to defend past decisions made by Blair and Brown, plus they would have handed the Tories the economic mess to sort out with all the unpopularity that would bring to them. If they managed to clear out the Labour front bench of all the old hacks or “guilty by association” people, a recovery within 10 years would be a feasible target.

What Will Happen

Brown will go full term and lose big. He will resign both the Leadership and his seat and retire into obscurity, his political career finished forever.

Initially Jack Straw would be drafted in as a caretaker leader and the next significant Labour Leader may well not even have been elected as a MP yet but that wouldn’t matter because it will take 18-20 years for Labour to recover so that a new generation of electors will never remember what it was like living under a Labour Government.