baldysblog.co.uk

Yesterday a chap called Shane Firth wrote a blog on the Daily Telegraph web site that essentially was a “push Cameron to the Right” in terms of making this promise or that concerning the run up to the next General Election. Now whilst the things the author wants, I do not fundamentally disagree with, it amazes me that these types of people have learned so little from 11 years of Labour rule or, misrule.

It really doesn’t matter what your particular political view happens to be, hard Right, hard Left or somewhere in the middle, the reality is that the “We are Telling You” attitude of Labour as emphasised by Harmon and Blears and this Rump Parliament has run its course and has only led to failure and social fragmentation.

It therefore follows that hard right commentators wanting Cameron to espouse “cuts in taxation plus job losses” in the public sector, want to behave no better or wiser than the Class of ’97. What they want as those Labour MPs wanted then, is not just ‘victory’ but the chance to rub the noses of their opponents in the mud and grind them into the dust. It all amounts to the ‘failed yesterday people’, the political world and the electorate have long ago moved on.

My response was as follows:

Baldyjohn

An interesting blog but seriously flawed. To take the author’s analogy a stage further, some 22 months out from the event, like something from the trenches of WWI, this writer suggests telling the troops that…

“We will fix bayonets and charge at the enemy trenches, in the face of heavy machine gun fire… Are you up for it lads ?” “Sex and travel” would be the collective reply.

This is not just about party politics, it is about economic realities and these will change possibly beyond recognition over 22 months. Yes Brown lost his chance over the election that never was and before the economic chickens came home to roost but, look back on the past 12 months and the economic picture is totally different and for most, the changes were unexpected.

Given the current global economic situation, you cannot even say that the current “normal” business models will still exist in 18 months time. Brown and Darling are going for a “borrow, bust and leave it to the Tories to sort out” kind of strategy but even they are walking on very thin ice and may well have to increase taxes before the next election, interest rates will most certainly rise.

Cameron would be stupid to deploy detailed policies at this time and even in 12 months time, should remain cautious, the economic situation and its impacts upon the British electorate are, that volatile, the state of the public finances, that bad. Two million people jetted off on holiday because they had already paid for it but wait until they return. Those that didn’t go to the States and elected for Europe, will be spitting teeth because of the devaluation of the £ Sterling which may yet prove another blessing in disguise… No marks for this writer, he clearly doesn’t understand the subject.

Reply Shane Firth:

The key point I wish to make is that an incoming Conservative government will have three choices:

1/ raise taxes
2/ follow the Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown’s spending plans
3/ cut wasteful government expenditure and cut taxes

In 2005/06 the Conservatives faced a Labour government with a reputation for economic competence. This drove to Tories to be careful about appearing to appearing to “allow tax cuts to put stability at risk”. How tax cut threatened the stability of anything apart from bureaucrats’ salaries still I do not understand. This climate has now changed and the Conservative Party’s narrative must reflect this.

In the new economic climate tax cuts are needed more than ever. On The Andrew Marr Show, Cameron seemed pleased that he was upsetting some in the Conservative Party over his refusal to pledge tax cuts. Supporters of tax cuts don’t want them for the sake of it; they want tax cuts because they will benefit the struggling economy.

To fund the much needed tax cuts, spending cuts are required. Unless Cameron believes that Brown and Darling are such financial whizzes, that they have current spending exactly right.

Baldyjohn;

Dear Shane

Many thanks for the courtesy of a reply, it is appreciated. However, I did read what you wrote carefully and would not argue against lower taxes and a lot less Red Tape in business and even abolishing daft ideas like “Paternity Leave” !!! What Muppet thought that one up ?

So whilst I may broadly agree with your thinking, not just for “presentational purposes” to get a Tory Government elected, it would be political suicide for the Tories and divisive for Cameron to start sprouting the kind of “necessary medicine” that those on the hard right would be happy with. Let me put this simply, you are right, any Government faced with current circumstances would cut both taxes and spending overnight. And have no doubt, Brown would if he had gone to the country last year and won as he would have done then, his personal mandate, with over 4 years to go, he would have “toughed it out”, he would have put people on the Dole and cut taxes. The reason being that his ‘legacy’ would be based on sound financial management and his ego would have driven him.

But that is not where we are, it is not where the markets and currency speculators are either which is why Sterling and UK plc have been devalued. Someone once said; “It is only when the British have their backs to the wall that they can see over it.”

Yes, I do understand what you are saying but frankly Governments are capable of very little, it is only the people through their ingenuity, loyalty to an idea and a willingness to suffer if necessary for a good common goal that make a difference in society and to society. The road to Hell is paved with good intentions and New Labour have lived this for 11 years. All their legislation was ‘well intended’ but the endless garbage they churned out merely divided society with the endless “rights” and no corresponding “responsibilities”.

When the electorate hand David Cameron the keys of No.10, the most important thing he will most likely say will have nothing to do with tax cuts or even sound financial management, not even competence in Government. My bet is that if he says something along the following lines, he will capture the mood of the Nation then: “We are in this together, we are one nation and together we will build a better future !”

It is not just party politics, politics is the art of the possible and any leader must listen to the mood of his audience, capture that and amplify it, I think ‘Dave’ will somehow manage to do that.

Shane Firth:

baldyjohn:

I agree with your comments about paternity leave – soon only gay men will be employable by companies that need certainty in their employees!

I feel that the approach of saying little or nothing is dangerous an outmoded. I confess I didn’t like the “don’t scare the horses” approach in 2005/6 but accepted it might have been a valid approach given the popularity of Labour and the strong economy.

Today, with the economic credibility of Gordon Brown in tatters it no longer makes sense. It is better that people understand the medicine needed to fix the economy so the Conservatives avoid the trap of being seen to mislead people like Labour and the Lib Dems. Yes, this will cost some votes, but it is better to get into office with the freedom to enact the policies required.

My Final Reply:

I suspect that you and I will never agree on this one so let us end any debate between us on this. I suspect that I have failed to express myself and my ideas properly or, succinctly enough. When I wrote:

“My bet is that if he says something along the following lines, he will capture the mood of the Nation then: “We are in this together, we are one nation and together we will build a better future !”

It is not just party politics, politics is the art of the possible and any leader must listen to the mood of his audience, capture that and amplify it, I think ‘Dave’ will somehow manage to do that.”

Perhaps all I should have pointed out is something far simpler in that Labour has been in power too long so that they “tell us” things like, “You shall not have a Referendum on the EU because we, Moribund and Brown, know better than you peasants so shut up and eat your porridge.”

It is both probable and likely that a Cameron Government faced with the economic detritus left by Brown, might well be more prepared to “sell us” stuff rather than “tell us” and in a sense, his comments on Sunday concerning the Lisbon Treaty might well presage a totally different and more appropriate approach to his electorate than Labour has ever managed even under Blair.