baldysblog.co.uk

Water always finds its own level and however harsh in the process, so do markets. This Government and to be fair many others across the developed world too, have contributed to this whole problem through lying to both us and themselves, about inflation. How on earth any official inflation figures published managed to exclude housing costs but include iPods, is beyond any attempt at credibility on their part.

Inflation has been running in the 5%-10% range for most of the time Labour has been in power but like the “Golden Rules” illustrate, anything said by Gordon Brown in particular and any Labour backbench MP scared of losing their seat generally is not to be trusted, they are in panic mode. I could challenge Gordon Brown to be a true patriot and forswear doing anything that interferes with the market but perhaps him destroying the UK economy by further meddling is his “Fate” and ours.

His Legacy a Joke…

Perhaps his legacy will be as a “joke” – “Doing a Gordon…Browning the Balance Sheet …A Brown fiddle – ’till it’s broke…” The reality is that he is quite right in saying that the ‘problems’ are both global and outside of his control but therefore also, outside his control to fix. Logically Brown cannot have it both ways:

Either he can fix the situation within the UK in which case why didn’t he prepare for this, why wasn’t the roof fixed during dry weather ? Or he can’t because it is ‘global’ in which case, don’t fiddle with something you can’t fix.

The “UK Remedies” in the face of decreasing tax revenues, spiralling Government borrowings will be a contraction in the economy and it will be inevitable whoever is in power. At least 600,000 public sector jobs will go permanently because the State must shrink, house prices will continue to fall which will act as a brake on wage inflation as building and associated industry jobs are lost which in turn will mean many “economic migrants” move on too. The fall in the value of Sterling will also help greatly so that left alone, the British economy will stabilise and be back on a more sensible growth pattern within 5 years with the worse over in 3.

In the USA

Historically in the US, an outgoing President who even if they are going to hand over to a new one from the rival party, will consider and do things to clear the decks for the incoming Administration. If for example “nuking Iran” was considered the only option, the outgoing Administration would do it so that a new President’s hands were clean and he could adopt whatever stance he chose once sworn in. People may laugh and sneer but Americans are genuinely patriotic in this way, unfortunately British politicians aren’t.

Advice for a Friend

There is a life/death cycle in all things and Labour’s time has now come or will, in May 2010. If I had a friend who was a sitting Labour MP and wished to remain so, my personal advice would be to forget getting involved in ‘plots’, spend as much time as you can in your local constituency. Talk and listen to people, be seen, give interviews, write articles for local newspapers, get on local radio, open any Fete, visit every Hospital and so on. Also forget “career advancement”, ignore any whips and always vote on “conscience and personal conviction.”

The reason is that a ‘good constituency MP’ can survive even in difficult times whereas one with their focus on the clouds and the main chance will most certainly perish and deservedly so.

Of Leadership Challenges

David Miliband is clearly a fool who doesn’t understand the game he is playing because he has done it all wrong at every level. What he should have done is to have first resigned and then publicly put his hat in the ring for a Leadership Contest which from his perspective, he would want to lose, the leadership prize he could pick up after the inevitable defeat and disassociated from the immediate past.

Okay, we know Brown is a dithering fool but Miliband has given him a chance to look ‘strong’ that even he might not be able to resist and therefore sack him in a Cabinet reshuffle. To have “resigned” would have a degree of honour and principle attached, to get sacked is just loosing your job and ‘perks’ on the basis that you are useless.

In fact Brown may have to sack him just to keep his other sycophants like Balls loyal to him so David Miliband will have achieved nothing, as Nurse would say: “Just a Summer fever that will pass along with his career.”