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Between the Russians and the Georgians, I suspect that there is little to choose in terms of integrity, neither has any and “truth”, as ever is the first victim of war. The Georgians were insane to act as they did, they must have known that they didn’t have a prayer against the Russians so I suspect that this whole episode is very murky indeed.

It has the feel of a “set-up” in that by some means, the Russian “provoked/encouraged” through some third party, the Georgian assault and let them walk into a carefully prepared trap the purpose of which was to effectively destroy Georgian military capability which they have done before calling a halt to their operations. But then again, as both are total arse holes, perhaps it is just a big mistake… all round.

That the Americans were not involved and did not even encourage this, is clear, the “Intel” they would have supplied would have been very exact, so no US plot here is very clear.

Putin’s Russia

The Russia of Vladimir Putin is to say the least, a big disappointment because instead of becoming a major global player and contributor to the world order, it has reverted to type, inward looking , myopic and aggressive. It is not that we in the West have any “right” to lecture Russia from some high moral ground because we don’t so that is not my personal stance, no my personal disappointment lies in what Russia “could be” and clearly will never ever become.

But then again I suppose that each nation has its own ‘destiny’ and in that regard, Putin’s Russia is little different from the USSR which was little different to the Russia of the Tsars. In each a few people controlled all the wealth and the power and the mass had little. For them “Motherland, Patriotism and being cannon fodder” is all they got and all that they will ever be given.

Economic Reality

The West’s reactions need to be firm but focus on the ‘foolish pride’ aspect of the equation rather than the “moral tone” which the Russian’s will not understand and perhaps quite rightly counter with statements about Kosovo and Iraq, people shouting at each other, do not hear what is being said. Russia will not be co-operative with anyone so expulsion from the G8 makes good sense, plus a Western Directive to withdraw from making any commercial investments in Russia because as the BP episode demonstrates, it is a politically insecure environment where they will “steal businesses” at will unhampered by any rule of law.

If Russia does not understand that the thing it needs most is not just the investment from abroad but most importantly, the technology and expertise that comes with it, then Russia is not even in the game, oil and gas production will not be enough to sustain their economy and spread the ‘benefits’ right across the population in terms of economic opportunities. Also from a military point of view, they have a massive technical deficit to make up before they can be on equal terms with the US and most of the West.

Game Plan or Cock-Up ?

The “game” is probably more complicated and therefore potentially more dangerous than most people seem to realise. I would love to see it as some game of Chess being run by a Russian Grand Master with clearly defined objectives in mind but alas, I suspect that “cock-up rather than conspiracy” rules again. There are no grand designs just a series of blunders and under such circumstances, things can go very badly wrong, very quickly.

The Georgians were stupid to launch this military adventure but the Russians too have over reacted massively or, presented with the opportunity unexpectedly (?), set out to maximise upon the potential for achieving their own goals and having done so, hoisted themselves on their own petard of national pride. From a Russian perspective, this was neither the time nor the place but it also demonstrated that there is no intellectual element to the current regime, gangsters all, one suspects.

A Big Thanks to Vladimir Putin…

However we in the West should be grateful to the Russians because they have probably given NATO a big shot in the arm which will refocus the organisation to its primary purpose, but expect the purely military to extend to “security of energy supplies.” Although they will prevaricate as usual, Paris, Berlin and Brussels might just finally start to wake up to their present reality which is a large unfriendly and unreliable neighbour on whom they have become dependent upon for energy supplies.

This means a major shift in technology, economic policy and direction is now a must in the West to minimise and eradicate oil dependency and that will impact Russia adversely over the next decades. It should also encourage the Europeans to start looking seriously at their defence spending and preparedness for the next European land war.

For the UK, Opportunity…

The UK needs to take advantage of the situation to change its relationship with the EU. In simple terms the EU is not even a “Paper Tiger”, in military and therefore diplomatic terms, it is impotent. It is a very good moment for the UK to distance itself from this bunch of losers and start rebuilding its arms manufacturing capabilities after all, we know we cannot rely on the Belgium s can we ? We need to go further by expanding the Armed Forces and most likely through a new form of conscription but on the basis of if you want peace then prepare for war.

It is not that another European land war is inevitable but “squaring up” to Moscow is a crucial step in avoiding it, bullies thrive on weakness and the EU is weak and even if it had serious military clout, the Russians know that it lacks the guts and the will to act decisively , ultimately, it is only the Americans who have the muscle to face down Russia.

And on the US…

Although it may fit into the category of the “Law of Unintended Consequences” the Russians by their actions in Georgia, might also just have sunk Obama’s electoral hopes and handed the White House to John McCain.

In such uncertain times, the American electorate is most likely to swing behind an experienced POTUS rather than someone having to “learn on the job.” Although different, for McCain read Reagan and that may well be the result and even although clearly a “One Term President”, that in itself may well frustrate Russian ambitions even further, a ‘soppy’ Obama as President might well have been far better.

The Other Lesson…

“Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has ordered an end to military operations against Georgia, the Kremlin says. “

Nice one Dmitry, when did Putin give you your orders ?