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There was an article in today’s Telegraph by the American Economist Erwin Stelzer in which he was speculating as to why Obama wasn’t streets ahead of McCain in the opinion polls at this stage.

Some wit hung up on conspiracy theories, wrote in to say that actually Obama was way ahead of McCain but the media were keeping it quiet just to make it look more interesting…hmm, more medication needed there I think. I really can’t see that happening in America, far too many different and conflicting vested interests for that to idea to fly.

Is Race a Factor ?

Stelzer speculated upon the question of him being black as an ‘issue’ but whilst polling shows only 5% of people where this may be true, as he commented, that may just be the 5% who answered honestly, there may be another 15% that didn’t which would be crucial come the day.

I don’t think Obama ‘being black’ is the real issue but if it was, his wife may not be a great asset and she may well have cost the Democrats quite a few votes already. But I wouldn’t just blame her, the man himself whilst he has considerable charm doesn’t seem very ‘solid’ or even at times, fully engaged which may undo him.

Other factors may also influence the outcome such as will the electorate want both Capital Hill and the White House controlled by the one Party. The recent Russian actions in Georgia might well also have harmed Obamas electoral chances to some degree, it might well swing Americans behind McCain as Commander in Chief rather than an untested candidate.

Race and Gender

It was quite a brave choice for the Democrats to make this year in pushing forward two potential “firsts”, a woman and a black man as Presidential candidates. Obviously it is not our choice this side of the ‘Pond’ and my opinion is no more valid than the next man’s but, Obama doesn’t impress me and Hilary did suffer from the “Vote Hilary get Bill” scenario.

Regardless of political party, if I were nominating someone who was black, highly intelligent, accomplished and also a woman, Dr. Condoleezza Rice… would be really interesting, that is a woman smart enough to be POTUS.

The Elephant in the Room

The truth is that the most interesting election will come about when the first serious candidate of “Hispanic origins” joins the race for the White House, the writers of the “West Wing” got that one right. The most significant ethnic group is not Red Indians or Black Americans, it is people of South American/Spanish origins.

Spanish is the second (although possibly on a head count, should be the first), language of the US, bank machines and phones are dual language, English/Spanish. Perhaps, but then again the majority of Hispanics tend to ‘buy into the American Dream’. In fact it was Hispanic parents who voted away preferential treatment for Spanish over English in California’s schools.

Perhaps there is a little way to go yet but it is nothing to be frightened of but when that election comes, for people who like a full blooded election process, they will be in for a real treat and for the World, a new and interesting voice will be heard.