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As we approach the Labour Party Conference at the end of this week, there is a fluttering in the Dovecote and murmurs of mutiny in the ranks concerning Brown’s Leadership. People lose their minor Government jobs for speaking out, the usual suspects like Harmon talk in a manner that demonstrates their total disconnection from the general public who just want to be shot of the lot of them.

That Labour will lose the next General Election whenever it is called, is a certainty but what to do about Gordon ?

What Labour MPs Are Thinking

To be frank, I am not sure how the current impasse can easily be overcome because I don’t think that Labour Party supporters have quite grasped the full extent of the perils that face them.

The reason no one is putting themselves forward as an “alternative” to Brown is because it is totally accepted right across the Labour Party that defeat is inevitable so why bother now ? Wait until after the election to “Reconstruct and Lead the Party Forwards”.

The Possible Outcome

However, I think that both they and the media are wrong and missing the “most likely scenario” which is the real potential of a hung Parliament with the Tories as the largest party. But it is the likely composition of that Parliament which is most interesting.

The assumption that 2010 will produce a reverse image of 1997 with Labour down to 170 or so seats and a Tory Government with a +100 majority is I believe wrong because the political map of the UK has changed fundamentally since then, if only because of Devolution and the end of the “Troubles” in Northern Ireland plus the rise of the Celtic Nationalist parties that are squeezing the Labour vote in both Wales and Scotland.

Oddly of the 3 former “pan national parties” Labour, LibDems and Conservatives, it is the latter that is best placed to prosper if only because they are strongest in England and therefore have the largest potential electoral base of +80% of the UK population. Also and providing Cameron adopts a “One Nation” approach, it is probably only the Conservatives who have the potential of holding the Union together.

Labour post the Next General Election

If Labour hang onto Brown, post the election there may be as few Labour MPs as 50 and not many of their “Big Beasts” left holding a seat in Parliament, the second largest party will be the LibDems who will take many of the seats Labour Lose.

The reasons why are that the British Electorate may well following the experience of 1997 be opposed to ever give any party such a huge majority as Labour had then, expect tactical voting again as in 1997. Labour will virtually be eradicated in Wales and Scotland by people switching to a Nationalist vote and in England, Labour supporters will either not vote or vote LibDem rather than Tory. The pattern in England will probably see the Tories taking the most obvious Labour held marginals and the LibDems taking the die-hard Labour heartlands.

For the LibDems this will be seen as their most serious opportunity to get back into the political ‘big time’ in 100 years, that they will put in a maximum effort is guaranteed, Labour’s loss will be the LibDem’s gain.

Labour Have No Choice…

Brown must go and sooner rather than later even if the “New Leader” is challenged and/or replaced after the next General Election. It is not a case of perfection as far as choosing the “Right Person” is concerned, it is about the survival of the Party. The “Right Leader” will emerge over some time whilst in Opposition and may well not be “obvious” at this time, in fact better not because all the current likely candidates have the “blood on their hands” of the mess we are currently in.

Regardless of any perceived personal merits, Gordon Brown must be removed by a Labour revolt at this Party Conference with a General Election falling in the New Year, Spring providing agreement with the other parties and the dropping of controversial Bills. Of course Labour will still lose but not by as much, they would still “have a story to tell” and a future to look forward to. If they “go long” under Brown’s leadership, they will be fading into history.

The problem that the Liberals found over decades was that with only a few seats, you just don’t have the critical mass to develop MPs into a credible looking “Alternative Government” or even form a full Shadow Cabinet and without that, you will only ever be a protest vote.

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