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Not setting the political agenda ? The answer must be no against the background of the Global Financial Crisis and Capitol Hill killing, if only for the moment, the American Rescue Bill last night – just a case when external events drive the agenda and its better to go with the flow !

However nothing serious is lost here and patience must be the order of the day. This Tory Conference was never going to be the same “pivotal moment” as last year’s was unless Labour had started the assassination of Gordon Brown at their Party Conference and they didn’t, all that was heard were the sounds of clucking chickens but there you go…

From David Cameron’s Perspective

The positive is that everyone in the Conservative Party has had some good “face time” with their colleagues across the UK and in preparing for a General Election in May 2010 which is a good thing. I would imagine that for those who were there last year, the transformation in the mood of the Party must seem little more than amazing.

The bonus for the Tory Leadership, lies in the timing of these events, providing no wild statements are made by them, a sotto voce approach to potential ‘solutions’ may well be the best tactic. True it will risk people in the media and Gordon Brown saying that “The Tories don’t have a strategy or a clue what to do” plus it would seem to reinforce the Brown claim of him being the only one experienced enough…etc.

However whilst it will give Brown a “bounce in the polls” on a basis of “Clinging to Nurse for fear of something worse,” that may not be a bad thing because the truth is, Brown doesn’t have a clue anyway because there are no answers and as the whole market is driven by emotion, it is all beyond the power of any politician to stop, including the President of the United States. Further and given the mess that Brown has made of the UK public finances, way beyond his ability to influence plus, the ‘ball’ is still in motion, it is not over yet.

A Hong Kong Story

I remember many years ago when the (I think) the new HSB opened its new and impressive Offoces and Bank in Hong Kong. The Banking Hall was on the first floor and there were banks of escalators going up a down from it. After it had been open for a time, the bank noticed that some Chinese depositors were withdrawing their money – why ?

The answer turned out to be that someone had noticed that there were more escalators coming down than going up and from this deduced that their money could leave the bank and get blown out into the bay.

It really doesn’t matter what causes a stampede, it is the stampede that is the reality and what we have in the Financial Markets right across the Globe.

The American Bailout

It was not “unpatriotic” for Republicans and Democrats to vote Poulson’s TARP Bill down because quite frankly, there is no way of knowing whether it will work or more importantly, what the unintended consequences may be. Instead of ending a 1930s style Depression, might it just prolong it all ? Nobody knows the answer to that, everyone is in the dark also and as important, people don’t yet understand how this all came about, blaming “Greedy Bankers” alone is obviously silly, what about the Regulators and the Governments  ?

Gordon Brown is not guilty of causing the Global problems but, he is guilty as is George Bush and many others of being asleep on duty. Brown can claim no kudos from anything he does between now and leaving Office in 2010 because it was he personally who caused the unholy mess that the public finances are in today. 

He was stupid, blind or deliberately malicious in his actions that ignored all common-sense as demonstrated by his empty boast to have abolished boom and bust in the British Economy. I truly cannot believe that anyone would be as stupid as to make that claim and apparently on three occasions in the House.

My gut feeling about Northern Rock was that it should have gone into liquidation and but for it being in a Labour heartland, I’m sure that it would have been let go. The Bradford and Bingley is a different matter because of subsequent legislation passed earlier on in the year. However the probability is that all the legislation passed thus far, is either inadequate, inappropriate or a mixture of both and we won’t know until the dust settles.

So Back to David Cameron

Stay strong, solid, speak firmly and be patient, Labour will screw it up and expose themselves for the failures that they are because it is in their very DNA. The next General Election was always for Labour to lose and they will but even if they get a favourable press for a few months, that is good from a Tory perspective, it will encourage Labour to cling to Brown and that is exactly the person the Tories want to be in charge come the next election.

There is only one serious threat to the Tories from all of this and it is not the Labour Party, it is increasing apathy by the electorate towards politicians in general and regardless of party, this can only increase if Brown and Co really do cock up publicly.

So a good tidy, neat and workmanlike conference with no glaring boobs, that is good as a preparation for the last 18 months of this totally discredited Parliament.