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In a sense this follows on from my previous essay “Situations Vacant…” However, I blame Andrew Pierce entirely for me returning to the topic so soon because of a brilliantly amusing article in the Telegraph entitled: “Harriet Harman: Britain’s most deluded woman ?”

Perhaps the sub-heading is even better: “Unashamedly ambitious, Harriet Harman believes she’s a leader-in-waiting. But the party’s MPs have other ideas, says Andrew Pierce” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/andrewpierce/4692030/Harriet-Harman-Britains-most-deluded-woman.html

However it does raise others thoughts and issues…

The Harperson

Personally I cannot see Harriet Harman as being a very viable choice because whilst as Andrew Pierce points out she has one asset that is needed for the job, a skin as thick as that of a Rhino, she just doesn’t strike me as being clever enough by half. This is not a natural ‘team player’ and I cannot see her being successful in holding a team together or even inspiring any degree of loyalty.

Also as a lot of drive and input would be coming from her husband Jack Dromey who as a Union General Secretary is “inside Labour” but “outside” of the Parliamentary Labour Party, that wouldn’t go down well. Of course all that said, if the only Labour MPs left standing come from a “traditional Labour background’ as opposed to the “Tony’s Luvvies” that got elected in 1997, who knows ?

Having a ‘strident’ personality is no bar to the Highest Office as Margaret Thatcher demonstrated in her day but really, truly and despite the desire of her and her husband for the top job, there is no way that she is the “Right Stuff” even in a Cabinet stuffed to the gills with mediocrity. Whilst she did win the Deputy Leadership in 2007, I am not sure that will even register in the “form book” post the looming 2010 electoral defeat of Labour.

What Will be Needed…

The exact ‘what will be needed’ post an election defeat is hard to predict accurately at this time because it will depend upon the scale and the nature of that defeat.

These last few Parliaments have so nauseated the public at large with their sleaze and incompetence which has reflected badly on all parties, there could be a very low turnout but even so, it is hard to imagine any permutations that would save Gordon Brown, his front-line political career is pretty much over now.

The public could go for a 1997 type election, come out in force and vote tactically to destroy Labour and put together a very diverse Parliament that ensures large scale representation of Celtic Nationalists, Independents and Single Issue candidates. Equally that could just refuse to bother turning out and by doing so say “A plague on all your houses !”

What Will Labour Do ?

Turn sharply to the Left again ? If they were reduced to say only 100 seats and had lost the majority of their Celtic heartlands, that is a distinct possibility, if they fall below 100, a racing certainty and we will witness the total demise of the Labour Movement in the UK.

MPs and former MPs who were to the “right of New Labour” will either leave politics or drift towards the LibDems and in this scenario, who leads Labour will be irrelevant or no more relevant than who leads UKIP, Respect or the BNP.

But suppose for Labour, the best scenario being that they have around 200 seats, they will still be viable and have a base from which to rebuild but it will take time. The reality is that they have made such a mess of actually being in power, the public won’t welcome them back quickly so they need to think 10 years plus before they can even start to have a chance and more likely, 3 General Elections. During that time they need to build a new “narrative” to answer the question: “What is the Labour Party for ?”

The Next Leader

Providing their vote doesn’t collapse completely, the next Labour Leader will need to be a natural ‘healer’ with good listening and people skills. They will not be the person that will bring Labour back to power, their ‘reign’ will last for at most one Parliament and they will likely step down after their first election defeat in 2014. However, in terms of rebuilding Labour, this first Leader will be key.

Sometimes when situations and circumstances change, so do people but right now it is difficult to imagine any of the current Cabinet as having these important skills. What Labour will need is someone who can work on the inside of the party whilst also presenting an affable and human face to the general public on “Newsnight” and the Sunday morning politics shows. They need to find a ‘Charlie Kennedy’ figure who has never served in a Labour Cabinet.

Harriet Harman sometimes dresses like a clown but I don’t think she has a sense of humour and I certainly don’t think she could fill this role.