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Iain Martin wrote an interesting blog in the Telegraph based upon comparing the “Leadership Speculation” in the Labour Party and the total lack of it within the Conservative Party. Mind you and knowing the ‘profile’ of the average respondent, he quite rightly anticipated quite a lot of the feedback.

I must admit that I find a lot of these “bluer than blue” supposed Tory supporters with their Cheerleader Simon Heffer, quite fascinating: What are they for and does it not occur to them that if Cameron took their advice, there would never be another Conservative Government, ever.

Cameron as Prime Minister

Although anything could happen to dramatically change the picture, the strong likelihood must be that in 15 months time, David Cameron should be moving into the tied cottage in Downing Street to start a very difficult new Parliament.

How successful Cameron may be as a Prime Minister will be to a large extent down to “events” beyond his control with the British and Global economy being obvious examples. Even ‘key issues’ such as us leaving the political EU may, resolve themselves rather more easily than one imagines due to events on the Continent. If for example the economic pressure on the Eurozone caused the EU edifice to start to crack and for there to appear a two-speed EU or more likely an inner and outer EU, the transition could be painless.

I suspect that Cameron will be quite successful simply because he is not ‘flashy’ and whilst many complain about a lack of “substance” in his policies, that is also a major asset, as few ‘hostages to fortune’ as possible. As the economy has been decimated and as Thatcher had to do in her first Parliament, the Tories will have to increase taxation whilst cutting spending, “true blue Tory stuff” will not be on the agenda until into the Parliament after next.

A Living Example

If you leave aside the all too obvious character flaws of Gordon Brown which were first mooted as gossip but since confirmed as hard facts, his major problem since becoming Prime Minister has always been that he could never “Relight the Labour Beacon”.

With hindsight it is obvious, whatever his hopes on finally becoming Prime Minister, there could never be a fresh start and a new Vision. Gordon Brown was mired in the past and as “guilty” as Blair, his only hope that the economy kept going reasonably well. In a sense, Brown was the girlfriend that after living ‘in sin’ for over a decade, finally married her fellah – the British Public unfortunately by the time he did, his looks had gone…

Don’t Underestimate Cameron

For those who doubt Cameron and pillory him as a “Toff”, they are overlooking his and his team’s achievements in cleansing the Tory brand and making them electable again in just 3 years. Of course he has made mistakes and had to change tack as circumstances have unfolded but that is all to the good, being PM will require that ability.

People need to also remember that prior to 1997 and before Blair became Labour Leader, all the heavy lifting and Labour Party reform had been pushed through by Neil Kinnock, Cameron has not had that support from within the Conservative Party, has not had a “John the Baptist” to prepare his way so, looking how far he has travelled to date, I don’t think people should underestimate him.