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Sooner rather than later, we the US and NATO will have to withdraw from Afghanistan simply because the Western public are not prepared to accept the cost in cash or casualties. There is no risk of a military defeat but I think that the main problem lies in there being no obvious and attainable goals either military or political unless the West is prepared to ‘dig in’ for a 20 year haul.

The sounds from President Obama suggest that despite this ‘surge’ of 17,000 combat troops plus support, it is likely that US policy over Afghanistan will change in the immediate future.

The Blame Game

The on going foot dragging over committing combat troops by the major EU countries within NATO (apart from the UK) plus the Canadian decision to withdraw by 2010, may well provide the ‘cover’ that the Americans need to pull out.

The reality is that Afghanistan today is still totally tribal and the Opium Trade has corrupted every part of the civil structures of the Country. Historically the locals have defied all ‘foreigners’ and to them ‘alien notions of Government’, this is not going to change any time soon if ever.

I would personally doubt that any NATO, American or UK troops will be in Afghanistan in 5 years time and they may leave a lot earlier, the physical logistics for resupply through Pakistan are not good and the future of Pakistani politics, far too uncertain for them to be considered ‘reliable’ local allies in the longer term, parts of the Country are already heavily infiltrated by ‘Pakistani Taliban’. From a purely military perspective, if you can’t control your supply lines, don’t fight there.

British Interests

The biggest security problem that the UK has within its borders lies in Afghanistan’s neighbour, Pakistan. This due to the number of British Asians that have family connections there and the military activities being portrayed to the British Asian Community as the UK fighting “Our Moslem Brothers”. This is a major communications failure by the British Government which may result in a future Government having to consider strict travel restrictions to and from Pakistan.

With regard to the Opium Trade, we in the UK may well have to consider Draconian measures as in the Far East which could include the death penalty and confiscation of all personal property as a deterrent to dealing or supplying drugs within the UK. When it comes to drugs within the UK, we need to remove the ‘profit’ at every level and increase the ‘penalties’ for being involved at any level.

Reality Sucks but…

The reality is that NATO and the Americans will haul ‘bottom’ out of Afghanistan and the place will return to its historic patterns of existence, inter-tribal feuds, war lords etc and why not, it is their country.

I’m not being unkind but in the rural areas of Afghanistan, apparently life expectancy is only in the low 40′s, the odd stray NATO bomb making little difference to the statistics. Against such a background, do girls getting an education matter that much, is it worth the life of one NATO soldier ?

If the “Afghan people” don’t want the Taliban back, it is up to them to fight and kill them not us. In Britain and the US, previous generations fought and died for the freedoms we have today, the Afghans really ought to do the same. Getting it handed to them on a plate won’t give them a sense of its value, will it ? A mistake the West keeps making is the idea that “democracy” has only one template when it really doesn’t. Like a plant it must evolve and grow from humble beginnings until it becomes part of the environment it is in, grows and thrives as a “native species” not a foreign implant.