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As someone of Anglo Irish origins, the only surprise to me is that the death of two soldiers and a Catholic policeman, hasn’t happened before because whatever the “process”, violence is never far away, there are always “die-hard” Republicans and worse, their equivalent Unionists. These have their equivalents in Iraq in the Sunni and Shia communities.

Whilst some may question the reticence of Jerry Adams to speak out more forcefully on the events of these past few days particularly as Martin McGuinness has bravely done so, things are never that simple in Ireland, history both real and imagined, governs all.

Republican vs Republican

The problems in the North stems from the origins of the the Irish Republic initially called the “Irish Free State” and today’s events, mirror many of the features of those times. The Irish War of Independence was fought against the British Government from 1919 to 1921 when a Treaty was signed that set up the Irish Free State which gave the 26 Counties of the South, self government on a Dominion basis within the British Empire/Commonwealth the same as Canada, Australia and with the King as Head of State.

This Treaty was signed by Michael Collins in London and it is said that as he did so he commented to Lloyd George that he had probably signed his own death warrant as was to be the case in due course. After a little while there was to be a Civil War that lasted about 10 months but was to leave a bitter legacy as families were divided.

The problem that Gerry Adams and the Sinn Fein Party has is that in becoming part of the Power Sharing Executive within the United Kingdom, they lay themselves open to the charge of having “sold out the Republic” in the same way that Michael Collins did.

Historical References

The exact details of the Irish Civil War are worth looking up and Wikipedia has a good basic entry on it http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Civil_War. In general terms when reading any material on Irish History, it is always better to avoid the “pot boiler” versions where facts are never allowed to interfere in a ‘good yarn’ and those who portray Irishmen and women as victims which frankly is an insult to a brave and hardy race.

Today’s Events…

Are essentially aimed less at the Security Forces and more at Sinn Fein and its Leadership and this once again reflects the events of June 1922 to May 1923 and the split in the Republican Movement between the Pro-Treaty and Anti-Treaty people.

Just as then, the anti-peace grouping whilst small in numbers, still see the “Republican Claim” as being to the whole of the 32 Counties with violence, murder and the destruction of property as legitimate tools in achieving their aims.

Of course they are wrong because on economic grounds alone, it is something that the South doesn’t want because it cannot afford it. More to the point, I can remember having a conversation with a senior member of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions some 25 years ago and him expressing quite forcefully that they didn’t want to import all those out of work hooligans from the Ulster Cities into the South.

Gerry Adams

To be fair, the man has a difficult line to walk and in a way, he has always made that clear. He has moved the PIRA away from violence and into the political arena but historically, just as PIRA broke away from the Official IRA, so too has the “Continuity” and “Real” IRA split from them which has historically been the pattern.

Gerry Adams is in the same position as Éamon de Valera following the end of the Irish Civil War, he has to ensure that the dissidents are contained and not given any space to grow. Irish public opinion has always been rather fickle so that the famous Easter Uprising did not have much support in Dublin at the time, but executing those captured in Wexford Jail rather fanned the flames and built that support.

Adams cannot be seen as being part of the British State nor can Sinn Fein be seen to give up on the goal of an Ireland of the whole 32 Counties even though it is highly unlikely to ever happen.

A Personal View

What Northern Ireland needs most is peace because it needs to attract inward investment and jobs the very last thing it needs is a return to violence. One of the biggest problems with violence is that it drives the young and most talented abroad, the very people needed to build a mixed economy so that all that is left are the unemployed and poorly educated who become the foot soldiers for the extremists on both sides of the political divide.

The problem with Ireland is that in just a couple of moves and a mistake or two, the whole thing can blow up again and likely, within weeks. To me NI has more in common with the Middle East , specifically the Israelis and Palestinians, if I’m honest, I wouldn’t bet the farm on “Peace in Our Time” in either place but, I wish both well.