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There is an interesting article by Matthew d’Ancona in today’s Sunday Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/matthewd_ancona/4991523/David-Camerons-warning-for-Britain-No-more-Mr-Nice-Guy.html) which is worth a read.

It concerns David Cameron’s speech to the Birmingham Chamber of Commerce on Friday evening and around which he has issued a personal apology for the Opposition (the Conservatives), not getting it right on the economy and not challenging the Government both harder and sooner over the state of the UK economy.

Clearing the Decks

Obviously there is a tactical element in his move, it turns the pressure up on Brown who refuses to acknowledge that he is in anyway responsible for some of the problems that afflict us. To him it was all the fault of “foreigners’ he was always right and it was them who buggered it up…

Brown is not just childish in sticking to this particular “approach”, from a political perspective, he is entirely stupid and will pay a very heavy price at the next election as will the Labour Party in lost seats.

In comparison, Cameron has done exactly the right thing and in doing so effectively cleared the decks for action and for some pretty ‘hard times’ ahead on coming to power.

When David Cameron Became Party Leader

As far as one can tell with any public figure, I like the man and I especially like the way he has noticeably “grown into the job/role”.

When he became Leader, the Tories had been out of power for 9 years and lost 3 successive General Elections under 3 different Leaders. So three years ago he inherited a divided and despondent Party plus a seriously “damaged brand”.

At the time and despite what many of us felt should be the case, the UK economy seemed fine and certainly the public too busy with heads in the air and Parliament with trotters in the trough. None were in the mood to want to listen to any bad news so “Doing a Churchill” (warning of the Nazis” pre WWII), over the economy was not a serious option for Cameron.

The Development Process

Often dismissed as just “Blair Light”, he got on with the job of ‘sanitizing’ the brand and reorganizing the Party, his aim to be in the position to be a credible “Government in Waiting” come the next election. However, he needed time to develop the Party, its people and its policies, the last thing he needed was an early General Election.

His first public master stroke was to frighten off Brown from calling an election in the Autumn of 2007, an election that Brown would most certainly have won.

Although Matthew d’Ancona sees the Birmingham speech as a watershed moment and I agree it is important, for me the key turning point was this ‘Election That Never Was’ because it totally exposed the weakness and lack of self belief of Gordon Brown.

This was the bell weather moment and a foretaste of today’s events because then, Brown wouldn’t admit that he “Was Going for it…” but got frightened off by the public reaction to a good Cameron Conference speech and a favourable swing in the polls for the Tories. Today Brown just can’t bring himself to admit that with hindsight, he made some mistakes and such lack of humility does not play well with a general public that is suffering.

Not Until the Fat Lady Sings…

Although anything could happen over the next 14 months, the likelihood is David Cameron will be our next Prime Minister and if he is, the person he could thank most for the job is Gordon Brown because Brown’s character flaws + “Events” will have delivered it.

When he first started, Cameron couldn’t even start to think about “Tax Cuts and or typical Tory Stuff”, he had to go with the flow and it suited his needs, “Yes we will match spending…” Now the tide has turned and everyone knows that big changes will have to be made and “Survival” will trump “Special Pleading and Pet Projects”.

The apology was a master stroke in the sense that it starts not just a ‘new chapter’ but also a ‘new narrative’ with the general public and regardless of whether they vote for you or not, people will listen. Even when they don’t like the measures you introduce providing good reasons and hard facts are presented properly they will go along with it.

Cameron will need a bit of luck to get a second term, Maggie Thatcher had hers with the Falklands, he will need something too because the road ahead will be hard with tax rises rather than reductions, nasty medicine could make him less than popular.