baldysblog.co.uk

Let me start by saying that I have every sympathy for any journalist trying to write something interesting about British politics this day, what can one say ? The Independent Leader showed how not to do it as the excerpt below shows:

“Even the UK Independence Party, seen as a great victor on Sunday night, actually saw its share of the vote rise by only 0.3 percentage points. In terms of share of the vote, the Conservatives gained only 1 percentage point, while the Liberal Democrats lost 1.2. The Greens did best, gaining 2.4 percentage points, but that did not translate into more seats in the European Parliament, whereas Ukip’s higher vote did.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/leading-articles/leading-article-an-electoral-debacle-that-might-save-gordon-brown-1700200.html

It Escaped their Notice

Saying that everyone else did the same it was just Labour that did badly, rather misses the point in my opinion which is that confronted with the same fallout from the expenses scandal and indeed with some of the most spectacular offenders with moat cleaning, tree surgeons and Duck Islands, the Conservatives increased their share slightly and including against the background of a UKIP challenge.

Labour’s vote collapsed and being beaten into second in Wales by the Conservatives, just about says it all !

Brown’s Survival

It was obvious yesterday morning that Brown would survive simply because the results were so bad and even Labour Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas or, elections they are guaranteed to lose along with their salaries, perks and pensions. If the expenses scandal showed nothing else, it was that our MPs are very venial and cheaply bought. In addition, following Purnell’s bold and honest resignation, once again Lady Boy Miliband flaked and ran off into the bushes. Carpe diem seems to translate for him into “crap my pants”, how could anyone pretend this man has leadership qualities ?

However that illustrates the problem Labour has which is that the long feud between Blair and Brown where there were two distinct camps within the Labour Party, has destroyed a whole generation of potential future ‘Top Party Politicians’ which will take likely 10 years or more to rectify. Put another way, Labour doesn’t have an alternative to Brown, for the past 14 years it was only either Blair or Brown all the rest were and still are, sheep.

Plus there is another factor to consider and likely weighs most in the minds of the rather feeble contenders available, Miliband, Johnson, Harmon etc. the next Leader of the Labour Party will be a thankless appointment designed to take Labour into the political wilderness in search of their Moses who likely, is still at school as we speak. The truth is that last night the Labour Party opted for electoral oblivion come the next election although one hopes the likes of Frank Fields and Kate Hoey survive.

The EU is a Problem

On the EU, the Indy and others twitter on foolishly because at every level and regardless of whether one is pro or anti the thing, people are very hacked off with it all and feel that it is a total con. The EU makes no attempt to ‘sell itself’ but does everything within its power to suppress democracy and debate, including within the EU Parliament. The Lisbon Treaty IS the EU Constitution on which we were promised a Referendum and anyway had been previously rejected by the French and the Dutch…

Brown’s failure to hold that Referendum on a flimsy excuse has not only harmed Labour but created a crucial turning point for the British electorate the consequences of which may prove significant. Previously there were strong Pro and Anti EU camps with frankly the majority of voters not motivated too much one way or the other which on the basis of electoral inertia alone, would gift a vote to the Pro Lobby.

Due to a combination of things, the expenses scandal which undermined trust in politicians, not having a promised Referendum and the economic situation, I think and it only a personal opinion that the mood has changed to one of “Prove It”. Even now, Brown should withdraw our ratification, this issue needs to be confronted but, he isn’t too smart and impotence will be the theme of the next 11 months which will increase the pressure on Cameron and the EU when we have a Conservative Government.