baldysblog.co.uk

I suppose after all the high drama of the “Expenses Scandal” and the Local and European Elections, there was bound to be a hiatus and “tears before bedtime” and it shows up in the press. Reading across the broadsheets, politics has reached a hiatus and it shows in the journalism, struggling for something to write about with only the Speaker’s Election to look forward to.

Fear not scribes, soon the silly season will be under way, Henley, Wimbledon and so forth but just as sunny days are punctuated with sunshine and showers, you can rely on one thing – Gordon Brown will be dealt yet another blow. What it will be and over what issue, I have not the slightest idea but this man is just so unlucky that you don’t have to be ‘Mystic Meg’ to work that one out.

Lackland

Our modern day Lackland (Gordon Brown), the name given to Prince John because he was the younger son to Richard Lion Heart, will not be signing any modern day Magna Carta this side of his electoral oblivion and who knows, we might yet have our Autumn General Election !

Brown reminds me of an old Gambler I knew when young. This guy was so unlucky with the horses that one time he backed half the field in one race and because of weather conditions, almost half the runners didn’t run. However, all of his were still in the running plus one other horse he hadn’t backed.

It goes without saying that the horse he hadn’t backed won the race and to make matters worse, despite each way bets (place), he still ended up losing money because of the varying odds, Gordon Brown is a bit like that.

Reading the Pro-Labour Press

I read Polly Toynbee in the Guardian, Lord what a tedious person she seems to be, far worse than even the awful Mary Riddell that pops up in the Telegraph of all places ! I still think the funniest reader comment I ever saw was when her spot was taken over for a week by someone else. Having commented on the article by the guest writer, they finished with “…the best thing about this article was at the bottom where it stated ‘Mary Riddell is away’ …”

I also read on Friday a piece in the Independent by Steve Richards complaining about Cameron not having laid down more policies openly. Was this because he is pro-Labour and wanted something to attack or was it because he has run out of things to write about ?

Cameron’s Situation

There are Conservative policies but frankly in a very fluid situation, Cameron would be a fool offering ‘Hostages to Fortune’ with too many specifics at this stage. What will the situation be when they get into power will decide most things the hard realities are fairly simple:

That the Recession will end is certain but when, is not because the current optimism may be ephemeral and just part of a double dip cycle. However in terms of tactics, the ‘when’ becomes important to determine accurately because of the second part of the problem.

This of course is the absolutely huge Public Debt created – whether for good or not, by this Labour Government by its policies. NB. I do not argue that bailing out Northern Rock was right or wrong, it is the existence of the debt created by that, the subsequent Bank bailouts plus an underlying structural deficit created by expanding public services under Labour.

The Reality for any Party

A Conservative Government wouldn’t just want to come into power, sort the economy out by harsh means and then get kicked out after 5 years. That there will have to be substantial cuts in public expenditure regardless of who is in power, thanks to Lansley’s goof, is now accepted even by that idiot we currently have as PM.

The trick is going to be about timing the squeeze so as to encourage economic recovery in the private sector so that Tax Revenues increase whilst throttling off public expenditure to pay down debt. From this there is a simple question to ask which is which Party is most likely to get that balance right ?

A Labour Government defending its past record or a Conservative one out to prove itself and with little to no baggage ?

My money goes on the Tories and if they are a bit light on policies, I don’t mind because thanks to Gordon Brown, whatever policy they imagined, there would be no money to pay for it anyway.