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It is possible to say that the Norwich North by-election didn’t really produce strong indicators of what would happen at the General Election. Yes the Tories won by over 7,000 votes in a safe Labour seat but the Labour vote clearly stayed away from the poll.

Even so, it must be clear that a Cameron victory at the next General Election is a likely certainty if only because the Labour Party has degenerated into a dispirited rabble, the Grand Army on its Retreat from Moscow and if not exactly eating their own horses, at least attacking each other openly or slyly, clearly their time is up…

Battles Lost…

I have always been a believer in the concept that; “Most battles are lost rather than won by the other side” and politics is no different because what the author describes in Callaghan, Major and now Brown are all people who led parties at the very moment that they have run out of steam and ideas.

The most interesting comment made by Blair whilst still Prime Minister but towards the end was that “…I wished I had done more…” by which I suspect he meant that as his Premiership ebbed away, he realised what a golden opportunity he had had and how, he had failed to take maximum advantage of it.

Already Damned

With hindsight, Brown’s demise was inevitable because having been Chancellor for 10 years and virtually in charge of domestic policy, on his accession to the “throne of PM”, how could he even before the brown stuff hit the fan have a personal vision that was different to Blair’s and New Labour ? More interestingly having plotted for a decade for the top job, why hadn’t he worked that out in advance so, just how bright is this man ?

About 15 months back my expectation was that the Libdems would have broken through and might realistically become the main opposition party after the next election. However, under the lacklustre Clegg, they seem to be going backwards, they need to get Charlie back !

The Forces of Creative Destruction

Labour needs a heavy defeat and some time in the wilderness, a time to rebuild and a time to wash away the memories of pretty much anybody in the current Cabinet all of whom and without exception, are pretty dire and like Brown, trapped in their collective failure. Although I am to the right of centre politically, I do want to see Labour rebuild itself both in terms of policies and more importantly, new people, we need strong opposition as the post 1997 election demonstrated and the Libdems don’t seem up to the job.

The first 5 years of a Cameron Government will be spent in getting the Public Finances right so there will be precious little room for any “Tory Policies” because there will be no money to finance them. But halfway through a second term, things will ease most likely and by then we need to see the rise of a new (lower case), Labour Party with different faces to provide a credible opposition.