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The objective of Defence is defence of the Realm which basically means our physical borders in the UK and their integrity whether from foreign enemy, smugglers or illegal immigrants and on that, I am sure most would agree.

The next question concerns “projections” from that basic position, what should the UK “posture” be ? And in answering this question, my personal suggestion would be to ignore Russia and the countries of the EU because both are rather yesterday’s news in all honesty. The geographic and geopolitical centres have moved substantially, albeit on a temporary basis, the future is always difficult to predict.

The Natural Focus of the USA

The US will still be the gravitational economic and military power centre but instead of engaging mainly with Europe and Russia directly and as previously, their focus will mainly engage with countries on the Pacific Rim, Japan, China, India, Australasia and so on.

In many ways the majority of European countries and in particular France which holds great sway within the EU, have rather missed the point here and learned very little from history and in particular the Second World War and the post war period. To some extent although not perfectly, the British have shown greater perception if only because of events at the time and since.

The US concentrating on Europe in the past, has as much to do with an unconscious “listening” to its Anglo-sphere roots in cultural terms as anything else. The reality is that the USA is as much a “Pacific Ring” Power as anything else and given the position of the Hawaii Islands, its Pacific role is more “natural” than its Atlantic one.

In military terms, from Pearl Harbour to the end of the war in the East, the American Pacific Campaign that re-took island by island is an astonishing achievement in terms of determination, courage and above all, logistics where the campaign was won.

The British Perspective

We cannot be sure that the economic centre of gravity is now based in China and India simply because thus far, they have been the beneficiaries of “outsourcing” of services and manufacturing from the West which were then exported back to Western Consumers. The current economic problems in the West are likely to over hang western economies for up to 10 years, in the case of the UK, even longer. The real question is whether domestic consumption within India and China can take up the loss of Western demand.

Only time can answer this question. If consumption in both China and India continues to grow so that it starts importing substantial amounts of goods from the western economies, then the global centre of economic activity has indeed changed, if not, other issues will arise.

The British Posture

We are a small island (s), with few natural resources and a large population relative to our land mass and we import far too much. Economically, the immediate objective must be a reduction in imports, import substitution, energy security via nuclear and probably tidal generation, I cannot take wind farms seriously.

We face a period of uncertainty, the USA may have other priorities to Europe, the majority of our European partners in NATO are reluctant to fund defence spending and even less keen on being in harms way.

The real problem for the UK is to construct our ‘posture’ accordingly in both diplomacy and defence terms. It is important to understand that the UK could leave the EU and still have a major influence on the EU simply because of it’s military capability. This is not a military threat to the EU but a simple fact of life. Even during the Cold War, Continental Europe sheltered under the US Nuclear umbrella and failed to spend on conventional defence, a situation that has further deteriorated following the Berlin Wall coming down. Even France, once mighty is but a shell of its previous capability.

British Interests

The “British posture” should be in defence of global trade and therefore, the Royal Navy and its capability should be paramount. We need to be obviously capable of securing the Atlantic and the round the Cape routes through our military presence and to ensure “free passage”. As I have previously written, small aircraft carriers mounting helicopters and drones should be at the heart of the Navy’s projection capabilities.

This requires a “numerous and connected Navy”. British defence capability should follow British vital interests which are free global trade and not being part of an ageing “Rich Boys Club” like the EU. Consider the political and then mould our defence capability to deliver upon our objectives, not the EU’s, not the US’s, British Interests but always ready to cooperate with our friends and allies