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Today, John Rentoul wrote an amusing column about Gordon Brown always being too late… It is a good piece and worth a read: http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-brown-is-too-late-for-everything-1778281.html

In it he mentioned some comments made by Matthew Parris in the Times : http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article6811404.ece which is also worth a look and between them it set me thinking…

Where We Are

I am no Labour supporter and suspect that even if David Cameron for some reason had to relinquish being Tory Party Leader and was replaced by say William Hague, such is the determination of most people to see the back of Labour, the Tories would still win.

However, that does raise an interesting problem for the Labour Party. My gut feeling is that they should go to the Country this Autumn because whilst they will still lose, their losses will be slightly less than if they hang on in there until next May when an electoral wipe-out might become a real possibility.

At the moment, Labour is still relatively safe as one of the two “big parties” but that is due to the LibDems not having made any serious inroads into the Labour Heartlands under the leadership of Clegg. Imagine what might have been the case if Charlie Kennedy was still LibDem Leader, he might already have put the skids under Labour in some parts of Scotland !

What Could Happen

The public are not prepared to mess about, they will take the mandate from Labour and hand it to the Conservatives because given the economic situation, a hung Parliament is of no use to them. Although it is too late for the LibDems to “surge” quickly enough to offer themselves as an alternative Government to the Conservatives, if Labour hangs on until next May and the Tory lead looks solid, as “extra punishment”, there might well be time even under Clegg, for the LibDems to push Labour into third place.

The Matthew Parris comment in the Times was quite amusing in the sense of him saying “that in some way he felt Brown had already resigned”, of course he is still Party Leader and Prime Minister but like now in the mornings I can gradually feel the season changing and Autumn coming so too, Parris was writing in that sort of sense.

Has Brown Accepted the Outcome ?

Labour’s fundamental problem is a lack of top talent to replace Brown as Leader so added to the fact that they will lose the election, there is no problem of “Vote Brown get Another” as there was with the 2005 Election. But the interesting question if Parris was right, has Brown accepted that he will stand down after the General Election, has he accepted the pending defeat as a fact as over 100 Labour MPs who will not contest the next election have ?

If so, an immediate General Election would be the best strategy for Brown personally, he might be remembered as the “Man who Saved World Banking” rather than the “Silly S*d who drove the Labour Party into oblivion”. The Party Conference Season might just get interesting …