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The Independent has a soft headed journalist called Mary Dejevsky who seems to specialise in writing ill thought out rubbish. It is odd, even the Daily Telegraph has one just like her called Mary Riddell who does the same. One of the funniest comments I ever saw on the DT was when Riddell was away on holiday and someone else wrote her column a reader wrote in commenting on the article and its footnote; “The best thing about this article was the footnote, Mary Riddell is away.”

Yesterday Dejevsky decided to write about breaking up NATO and this is a good example of soft thinking: http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/mary-dejevsky/mary-dejevsky-natos-dissolution-is-long-overdue-1782938.html

The Continuation of NATO

The reason NATO was not dissolved and shouldn’t be can be summed up in one word “Putin” and beyond that what he represents. The problem with Continental European countries on the whole but especially France and Germany, they have for far too long, rather like a family on a sink estate in Britain living on Benefits, relied on the Americans to take up the slack by deploying a military capability that they, Paris and Bonn are not prepared to pay for.

NATO’s importance in the minds of most Continental countries diminished with their previous fears of the Soviet Union when the Berlin Wall came down and the end of the Cold War. In this they are wrong because if you want peace, you must prepare for war, Continental Europe by itself today, is prepared for only one thing in a conventional war scenario, being overrun, quickly.

We in the UK need to factor that into our planning along with the distinct possibility that the USA may focus more on the Pacific Rim than Europe in the future.

The Special Relationship

There is no “Special Relationship” beyond the common culture of the Anglo-Sphere between the US and the UK or indeed Canada, Australia and New Zealand, all else is based upon mutual benefit which will wax and wane according to the prevailing circumstances of the times. The common culture enables an ease of understanding, though not necessarily common actions on all things. In comparison, there is little common understanding or commonly held views between the UK and the EU, I really do wonder why we remain part of the EU.

As to Britain being the odd man out, we are and always have been relative to Europe throughout our history, it is that very factor that has enabled us to help Europe out in military terms over many generations against aggression. All we now need to do is review our Defence posture and equip accordingly, the Americans may only do the right thing after they have tried everything else first but, they are far more reliable than the majority of our EU partners as Afghanistan demonstrates only too well.

Europe Needs NATO

The reality is that Europe needs NATO as a guarantee of continuing American support and it’s military power but the focus has shifted East and away from Europe, the USA is also a Pacific Power and for now, it is around the Pacific Rim that most things of direct interest to the US are happening.

The “United States of Europe” idea is fundamentally flawed because there are just far too many free-loaders in the EU and I don’t mean the newer members or the smaller countries. The UK needs to avoid being co-opted into providing the EU with “military teeth” in fact, we should leave the EU.

We need to start with a Defence Revue that concentrates seriously on our ability to protect these Islands, the “Atlantic Bridge” and our essential trade routes. This may mean abandoning some of the more fanciful projects such as two big Aircraft Carriers and even the Trident replacement, when due in favour of more UAVs, smaller carriers to launch them and Astute Submarines with Cruise Missile that are nuclear tipped in their capability.

The Future

The World has moved on, Western Europe is no longer the focus of US Military planning and unless Russia is silly enough to try and square up to the US, there can be no anticipation of US nuclear deployment on behalf of Europe unless it is seen as essential to the immediate interests of the United States.

In terms of conventional war, as Brussels likes to boast about the size of the “EU Internal Market”, the Americans can reasonably expect that the EU could deploy sufficient manpower to fight a conventional war scenario. Of course whilst on paper the numbers are there, in reality Europe and the EU today looks more like the Hapsburg Empire than anything militarily sensible.

Whilst following Bush and Blair, Iraq and Afghanistan, the UK needs to take a backward step from its “over-involvement” with current US Military fads, by getting it’s own house in order and competent once again, the relationship will renew itself again naturally. But for Europe and the EU, something more is required, less arrogance, more humility but above all, more Realpolitik, a value that has been missing for far too long in various European Capitals.