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I suppose that it was predictable of the Media for David Cameron to be attacked for dropping the promise of a Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty as it has now been ratified. If he had stuck with it, they would have attacked him for doing that too !

A typical bit of moronic reporting came from the Independent under the headline: “Fork Tongued Tories” – http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/leading-articles/leading-article-forkedtongued-tories-1814808.html

Reality

The reality is that Cameron never did promise a Referendum on Lisbon, come what may and in practical terms, he is right, as the damn thing has been ratified, there is no point so, he is not speaking with “A Forked Tongue” apart from in the minds of cheap hack headline writers.

It was Nick Clegg who as he led his troops away from the battle over the Lisbon Treaty without keeping his word to the electorate, talked about an IN or OUT Referendum, not David Cameron. There is a lot more at stake here than who said what and when but, if Lisbon is a pointless thing to hold a Referendum on, the only real choice is a “Norway-Switzerland” arrangement, plain IN or OUT or remain as is.

Let me admit, if only to protect fishing stocks for future generations, OUT would be my personal option, we really do not need to be part of it economically as our substantial trade deficit with the EU demonstrates, they need us more than we need them. In addition, a Norway, Switzerland Deal means that you are still paying Brussels Dane Geld. The reality for any nation concerning its “influence” today as ever, rests on two things, economic and military potential and unlike Continental Europe, the UK never just sheltered under the US Nuclear Umbrella and cut defence spending to ribbons.

A Good Political Judge

But all that said, David Cameron is quite right to avoid any type of Referendum on Europe for the next 5 years as he tackles our major fiscal problems which will inflict real pain on the British Electorate and will regardless of which political party formed the Government. As Ireland demonstrated and the average British elector would be little different, when faced with hard times, quite irrationally, they will “cling to Nurse (EU), for fear of worse” so Cameron calling a Referendum that was lost or only narrowly won, would be sheer political naivety.

Also and until the EU issues a Directive that really gets their attention, for the British, the EU is not a pressing issue and has never been a vote winner. A good illustration of this is that UKIP can dilute the Tory vote in certain seats and even allow a third Party to win seats that otherwise the Tories would have won but, UKIP can never get within spitting distance of say the SNP in terms of seats in Parliament.

Put to the Test

This goes even further because whilst the Tory Party is by nature Euro sceptic as are many in the Labour Party, draw battle lines on an IN or OUT vote and a surprising number will get rather “Flaky” to say the least. No, even for someone like me, now is not the time because it will take a “specific moment in time” before we can thrust a spear to mortally wound this EU Beast, patience is the right course of action because the time will inevitably come, it always has in the past.

Additionally and for all the idiocy in the Media seeking dramatic headlines, British Diplomacy has been quite successful in making things unworkable by enlargement alone. The problem of course is that this will make France and Germany want a two tier EU, partly so that they can dictate to other members as they like to do but also because of pressures on the EU Budget, it will be a ploy for neither to pay more into it, British European Policy will be directed to prevent this regardless of who is in power.

Forget all the Tony Blair words of “At the Heart of Europe”, actions speak louder than words as the retention of Sterling however explained by this “Test” or that. Britain’s rather surly “foot in the door relationship” with Europe will continue tomorrow as it has since Henry VII, its good for them and us because Mainland Europe cannot be bound by any derivative of the Hapsburg Empire, real divisions still exist and need to be managed.

The Lisbon Treaty

After 8 years of messing around and based upon all 27 countries having to ratify it, apart from Ireland which had to have a Referendum for Constitutional reasons and could be bullied easily, the thrust was to ensure that no Referendums were held following what the French and Dutch had done to the ill fated “European Constitution”.

As all three British Political Parties had promised a Referendum on the European Constitution and the Lisbon Treaty was just the scrambled eggs version of it, what was Brown and Blair heavily involved in the background, offered in return for no Referendum ?

If it was a Blair Presidency, that isn’t going to happen and as the Labour Party’s star has waned, they no longer have to be “accommodated” so what was the deal ? Likely David Cameron will be pushing at an open door over concessions and opt outs because that was the deal. None will happen overnight, there will be the usual Pantomime performances that are essential for any EU Summit, if only to make it look important but, over the 5 year period, David Cameron will achieve all his objectives because they need the UK more than the UK needs the EU.

Actually the best first move would be to remove the UK from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Human Rights which although not an EU Body would start the process of once again making UK Courts supreme in the UK. This then combined with EU opt outs will make a modified Human Rights Act function better and more sensibly, not being able to deport illegal immigrants is a total nonsense that doesn’t help genuine refugees or this Country.