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Although not my favourite Candidate for the US Presidency, the choice of the American electorate was Barack Obama and I admire his efforts over Healthcare Reform, he is right and I am sure he will be judged so over time. I personally don’t care too much for his style because to my mind he is far too laid back and often seems somewhat disconnected and right now over Afghanistan, this is very dangerous.

The biggest single problem currently is not whether the Americans send in more troops or just how many if they do, it is President Obama’s dithering over the matter and Karl W Eikenberry, a former General and now American Ambassador to Kabul, with his leaked communication advising against further reinforcements, really doesn’t help anyone whether they are in favour of getting troops out or, of hanging on in there. The advice given to parents about not arguing in front of the kids, comes to mind, the White House seems to be in total disarray.

A Clear and Present Danger

In the end, Barack Obama having a “Gordon Brown Dither” might well settle the matter for once and for all because things on the ground in Afghanistan will not wait upon the Beltway Set. If the Afghans think that NATO is likely to pull out sooner rather than later, new “alliances and groupings” will be formed locally, very rapidly, all our casualty rates may escalate.

From a British perspective, our main concern is Pakistan who finally are doing something about their tribal region however, if they feel that the NATO Mission might well fold, their resolve will weaken. What about an Afghan Army Officer who gets the feeling that those 100,000 NATO troops might just start to slip away, should he start making “deals” with Tribal Leaders who may well be Taliban aligned. What about the ordinary Afghan Soldier or, crap though they seem to be, Policeman, just how committed can they feel ?

Regardless of whether they were deployed or not, the President should have announced the extra 40,000 troops and then put pressure on Kabul, all he has done by this approach is to paint a bullseye on every American and NATO soldier deployed there already – Oh What a Bummer !

Right Time, Wrong Man ?

George Bush (Jnr.) was way too much gung ho although I never saw him as “stupid” as some of the Media would have it. President Obama seems to have far too little steel or, he may just be a bit too cerebral and therefore looks indecisive, I’m not too sure to be honest and to be fair to the man.

The reality is that “you” cannot solve Afghanistan is the truth, like it or not, they really don’t have a Pushtan version of Nelson Mandela waiting in the wings. It is a backward, poor country based upon a Tribal Society, bribery and a short life expectancy so lengthy prognostications upon it are a total waste of time. Even if the US President had broadly decided to pull out completely within two years, he shouldn’t say it and he just should have announced the additional 40,000 troops his Military Commander had asked for, whether in fact they were deployed or not, they could not be deployed overnight anyway.

Dithering is Political Masturbation

Dithering is always lethal, in two years it has destroyed the political credibility in the UK of one Gordon Brown and alongside that, the Labour Party itself. Dithering over Afghanistan in the way the White House has and regardless of the eventual decision arrived at, has seriously harmed American prestige abroad in a vain attempt to play to the gallery of American Domestic Politics and that is foolish.

Worst of all it may also cost NATO many casualties yet as each (New), Afghan Group tries to “out do” the others with being more “Nationalist” and “Anti-Foreigner”. There was a lot of crap said about the British “Pull Out” from Basra but negotiating a “deal” with the local Militias to do so without being “under fire” was totally sensible under the circumstances presented to the local British Commanders with a totally ‘Flaky’ Gordon Brown led Government unprepared to tough it out and accept the casualties.

Is the USA Prepared to Give Up it’s World Leadership ?

I suppose today the real question is, in President Barack Obama, do we have an equally ‘Flaky’ Leader of the Western World ? For the White House to imagine that they are just playing a game of Poker to force Karzai to clean up his act and that there won’t be consequences on the ground, is just plain dumb, Megaphone Diplomacy just doesn’t work, has the State Department fallen asleep under this Administration ?

If I were to be frank, my guess is that President Obama is far too busy “Being the First Black President” to be a good President. Mind you, if Hilary Clinton had won, I suspect that she would have been far too busy being the “First Woman President” to have been very effective either, the Democratic Party made two odd choices but based upon a pretty clear run to the White House.

Penultimately and as the British in Victorian times can avow, the worse possible scenario would be a “fighting retreat” from Afghanistan through a disillusioned Pakistan. “Bad Karma” never looked so bad !

And Finally

As the recent shootings at Fort Hood, 9/11, Madrid and the London Bombings of 7/7 show, just walking away is not an option but “confusing messages” as are current now from the “Leadership” in speaking domestically and to overseas are and therefore ensure “Repeat Performances”.

What is wrong with the current Administration in the USA is a fixation with the colour of the President, what is required is the true wonder of the USA, being optimistic and with that, seeing the “problems as solutions” and easily overcome through industry and common effort, it is like raising a barn… that is where the USA and the West now need to be and if the present guy is not up to the job, another will be and hopefully, before it is too late.