baldysblog.co.uk

To much amusement, there was an Opinion Poll commissioned by and published in the Observer that showed that Labour was ‘closing the gap’ with the Conservatives but as usual in the Independent, the rather more sensible subscribers put that into some perspective and, amusingly so. The ‘blogosphere’ may be guilty of many things but “Comments” on the broadsheets can often be just so constructive and worth exploration.

This comment was priceless, do follow the links – “IPSOS Mori polls are biased towards Labour because they don’t politically weight their sample. And with small samples (like this sample of 1006) that is important. The explanation is here: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/faq-weighting (scroll down to “Political Weighting” and then to “Ipsos MORI”). “

My Reaction Was…

All polls are unreliable, the only one that counts is the ballot box. From experience we all know two things, people rarely answer accurately with regard to their voting intentions and secondly, you have never ever met anybody who has taken part in one of these opinion polls.

It should be borne in mind that whilst Labour were well ahead in the polls prior to the 1997 General Election, no one predicted the level of the landslide that followed.

No Hung Parliament

Whilst I would like to see a Cameron Government with a good working majority, I would rather have a Labour Government with a majority than a hung Parliament which would be an economic disaster for the UK. There is one danger that the Conservatives face and that is if people are not prepared to face the enormity of the situation and the the impact of this within the UK over the next decade which for us could mirror the 1930s.

Whether Gordon Brown is just a pathological liar or, simply delusional, there is no way that Labour’s current policies will “Grow the UK Economy out of Recession”. Whoever forms the next Government will not just be looking to cut public spending by between10 and 20 percent as quickly as possible, they will have to raise taxes substantially and immediately because spending cuts will take over two years before they kick in.

Immigration is a Factor

Additionally and Labour’s lack of control seems to indicate that it is part of their plans, the UK will become the low wage economy of the EU using immigrant labour from the Indian Sub-Continent who barely speak English and get paid very badly. There will be lots of British people on Benefits and a virtual “slave class” doing the work none of which paints a picture of a “Green and happy land.”

Ultimately I tend to trust to the common sense of most people who vote, Labour will be removed from power simply because their time is over but just as importantly because in Gordon Brown, we have a PM who is totally lacking in political judgement. It is not a question of “hate” for most people, it is simply that he is an obvious “born loser” and the misspelt letter affair, finally put him on the same basis as John Major prior to May 1997, pity, the cruellest cut of all for anyone who would want to lead anything. Who would follow him ?