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In yesterday’s Times, a Murdoch owned newspaper, there was a leading Editorial called: “Preparing for Government” and subtitled: “David Cameron seems content to drift into power on the back of Labour’s unpopularity. Even if this strategy succeeds it will provide no mandate to govern”. As ever I give you the link: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article6948033.ece

I will start with a copy of my ‘unpublished comment’ and whilst one may say based upon the content, “Fair Enough” but to be fair to the Times, they have published similar from me before so, I guess it depends who is on the “desk” at the time. However, there are other issues here too which need to be examined…

My Unpublished Comment:

This Editorial is well wide of the mark and really points to the fact we should have had an election this Autumn so that the Country could have moved on. As it is by not doing so Brown has compounded the scale of Labour’s defeat and we the public will be exposed to political journalists staring at their navels and writing about ‘belly button fluff’ until next Spring – Oh what joy !

Regardless of the political beliefs or not of many, not believing in politicians is now as fashionable as atheism it would seem among the chattering classes, some common sense must surely be applied based upon the hard facts.

In Darling’s presentation tomorrow, we might finally see some honesty emerge from this Government as to the appalling fiscal state of UK.plc. In the immediate run up to the Christmas-New Year season, only a total idiot would take the implied advice of this editorial and Cameron is clearly not that silly.

Forget the “Economic Indicators”, January and February is when consumers are most aware of their personal financial positions, Brown has boxed himself in, the earliest he can go to the Country is March… Late February will be soon enough for Cameron to start launching more detail when the public are ready to listen. Did you give someone on ‘Work Experience’ the task of writing this nonsense ?

The Real Problem

Is in part the fact that the “Sun Backs Cameron and the Tories” as a declaration not long ago but within that is also something else, “Murdoch doesn’t back looser s…” and in that context with News Corp suffering along with the rest on advertising revenue comes:

“The poll in The Times this morning shows the gap between the Conservatives and Labour down to eight points. Over two months there has been a ten percentage point fall in the public expectation of an outright Conservative victory at the next general election. More and more leading figures, both in Westminster and the City, are expecting either a hung Parliament or a minority administration. Clearly David Cameron is not making a convincing case.”

Obviously as a ‘view’, it is total bull shit and in sense, shows just how removed from reality are not just politicians but also their ‘outriders’ the Media. We are in the run up to the Christmas season, people just don’t want to even think about politics, for the moment they want to concentrate on family and friends. Once this period is behind us and we are in January and February of 2010, the thing will change again.

A Hung Parliament

Up to 12-18 months ago, this was a distinct possibility if a General Election had been called then but things have moved on by quite a distance since. It is amazing to think that it was only shortly before the Summer Recess that Brown started to acknowledge that there would have to be severe cuts in public spending as his “Labour Investment, Tory Cuts” slogan started to be seen for the downright lie it was.

Labours forecast for this year was that the economy would shrink by around 0.75-1.25%, the reality will come in around 4% or more. The Budget Deficit would be £118bn whereas we are already seen to be heading for around the £200bn for the year. The bottom line is that you don’t need to be an economist to work out that this cannot continue, there are going to be drastic measures required to get the books balanced and as Alistair Darling’s Pre-Budget Statement will demonstrate yet again, the dead hand of Brown will still try to defy all reality.

It is against this background that the General Election will take place and the public will face a simple choice, more of the same or, vote for change, my guess is that change will win out though Labour may not be as crushed as the Conservatives were in 1997 unless, more bad news surfaces. Brown has proven to be very unlucky since he moved into No.10 so I wouldn’t bet against something coming out of the woodwork at just the wrong moment in time for both him and the Labour Party.

Conclusion

David Cameron needs to keep his powder dry, time enough in late February to start opening up on the Government with detailed policies and too late for them to clone them prior to the election. The election campaign starts in the New Year, for now let the polls show whatever figures they may, it is not yet the moment for the “Big Push” by the Conservatives.