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I suppose with the year drawing to a close it would be obvious that there would be lots of “assessments” by journalists concerning Obama’s first year in Office and how the Hope he bought for change and a different approach has actually played out during that time.

Inevitably there will be many who start to wonder whether he will turn out to be a “One Term President”, my gut instinct is that it is far too early to say because often it is the unforeseen “events” which determine the fate of Presidents and Prime Ministers based upon how they react.

He is a Failure…

Although it is an interesting proposition because on the one hand many countries expect the USA and its President to “Work Miracles” for their benefit whilst at the same time attacking the US as being “Imperial”. This is rather like the attitude of France and too many European countries who sheltered under the Nuclear Umbrella of the US during the Cold War but now “Want to be seen as Equal to the US”.

However whilst pointing out that he has been unlucky in economic terms during the time he became President, that is only one year out of 4 and it doesn’t take too much or too long for a situation to turn around fairly rapidly, think Cuban Missiles or the Falklands War, would Maggie Thatcher have got a second term without the latter “event” ?

A Time for Fools to Tread Carefully…

The “perceived” reduction in America’s clout could of itself bring about the circumstances for very decisive action by Obama. However the word is “perceived” because the reality is very different because what other Nation could sustain two Armies of plus 100,000 high quality, superbly armed and logistically supported troops “in the field” thousands of miles from the USA ?

It would not be a time for Iran to keep on pulling the Tiger’s tail for example; After the experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan, there can be no further appetite in the Pentagon for invasions and “holding ground”. However, one should not forget that the US has an awesome arsenal at its disposal and if it decided to “take out” Iranian Military and Nuclear pretensions and was sufficiently provoked to accept the “collateral damage” and negative press, it could very easily.

Having subdued and humiliated Iran, it might then move to impose a “solution” on both the Israelis and Palestinians and who could stop them doing so if American public opinion said “Enough is Enough”. Whilst there certainly is a very powerful “Jewish Lobby” in the US, it is not all powerful and as all Americans would line up behind the President if vital US interests were threatened.

Conclusion

Apart from the reminder of US strength, the above scenario is both hypothetical and speculative, who knows, Obama may just be an unlucky President but on the other hand, I would suggest that even at the Half Term Elections, it will be too early to say so. “Events” may conspire differently and one should always remember that the USA has the two key essentials of any important Nation, it has both economic and military potential, we live in interesting times.