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The General Election if with rather a long run in, is now under way and a question often raised goes something like; “Why hasn’t Cameron sealed the deal with the electorate, Blair was streets ahead this time back in 1997.”

However whilst that is true, to expect the same pattern to day as in 1997 it is also to imagine that this is the ever optimistic USA rather than the UK where people tend to hold memories more than hopes, particularly as it is obvious that whoever forms the Government, we are entering an age of relative austerity.

Dashed Hopes…

The answer is that for all the hopes and expectations of that morning in May 1997, New Labour has been a total failure and even the vast sums spent on the NHS and Education are retrospectively viewed as questionable measured in terms of results. Even Blair in saying “I wish I had done more…” was his admission of failure and its 13 years in power are mainly seen as a “Wasted Opportunity” right across the political spectrum.

In this sense, Cameron has been quietly wise, has promised little in terms of “flashy policies”, he knows that the electorate as a whole are disillusioned with politicians and basically wants to prove that he can get the job done. In a sense, the public view of Blair and Cameron is a bit like their view of the Marriage of Charles and Diana, great expectations with a pretty dire outcome and in contrast Charles marrying Camilla was treated very low key and with just mild curiosity. And yet in the latter case, most people are quietly pleased that it seems to have turned out very well be they supporters of the Monarchy or not.

Perhaps it is a rather British thing, too much laughter often turning to tears at bedtime… but overall, I do suspect that consciously or not, the die is already cast. Gordon Brown will lead Labour to a General Election defeat and probably, that is the best result for the Labour Party because it will give them a time to regroup, select an interim Leader whilst it finds itself a new “political narrative” and grows some political talent from which to come back into contention for Government, in a decade or so.

The Likely Outcome

Whilst all things are possible, the circumstances where there could be a hung parliament do not really exist, even the opinion polls, hardly the most reliable measure I would agree, don’t see this as a neck and neck race which would be a pre-requisite. The possibility of a hung parliament would become more real or, have become more likely if the LibDems had made a stronger showing so that they were roughly on par with Labour and both pegging the Tories back to less than 40 percent.

The British are not at ease with triumphalism and boasting therefore the simplest thing that the PR people for the Tories could do that would encapsulate the whole issue is to keep playing the video loop of Gordon Brown claiming to have “Abolished Boom and Bust” – Says it all really and that is what the public will vote on, not political ideology but over their “shattered dreams and expectations”.

Some Flack, Some Reply

Amusingly I got some flack from a couple of people having posted pretty much the above on the Independent. Unless totally boring or an insulting posting from someone who might be clinically insane, my policy is to reply to each, it maybe intimidating to them but it is also good practice for me in keeping sharp.

The following was my reply to someone who seemed to think Cameron was too stupid to know what he was walking into and further, this writer thought that a Hung Parliament would be a good idea which did make me wonder whether he might be clinically insane or merely wish these island nations no good at all.

My Reply

Whilst “This would be a good election to lose” would be the cynics view, in reality I suspect that Cameron knows exactly what he is letting himself in for and, so do the general public in fact, it is part of the ‘game’.

He has a 50-50 chance: He may well end up as hated as Blair or more but not for the same reasons, it will be because of the measures he has had to take to get the UK back on an even keel. In 5 years he will not have the “wiggle room” to introduce a single major Tory policy. He may get that chance if and only if, he gets a second term and he knows it as evidenced by him kicking the EU – Lisbon Treaty issue into the long grass for the next Parliament.

A Hung Parliament

As for wishing for a hung parliament, there are very many economic reasons why this is the very last thing the UK needs at this time. A hung parliament would lead to another General Election within 12-18 months ask yourself this: “What don’t you know now that you will know then ?” “Why put off a decision this May that you will have to face again shortly ?”

I was very amused to watch Gordon Brown with his pet familiar Marr on TV today. Brown claimed that he always had to fight for things in his life… I almost wet myself with laughter. This is the man who was too frightened to challenge Blair for the Labour Leadership, one who insisted on a “Coronation” when he became leader and ran away from a General Election which he would have won, in 2007 because David Cameron said Boo !

The only people I’ve seen wanting a hung parliament are Labour supporters who know they can’t win and don’t deserve to but want to F**k the Tories anyway or LibDems whose Party at the time of a deeply unpopular Labour Government, have failed miserably to take the high ground and displace Labour as the “Radical Wing of British Politics” where historically they belong and therefore, nice though they may be, do not deserve a sniff of Power.

The Reality – No Choice

It has little to do with my personal political leanings, the truth sad or not and however you feel about it, is dead simple, there is only one game in Town, it is David Cameron and the Conservatives. I can assure you as someone who clearly leans towards the Conservatives that in May 1997, I said the same thing about Blair and New Labour, the Country didn’t have an alternative to him then either.

Cameron may only serve one term, if things go badly, the “Tory Men in Grey Suits” may remove him mid-term but unlike Blair, he won’t arrive in Downing St unprepared, he will be ready to give it his best shot from day one and that is what will be required. Will he make mistakes ? Do Bears shit in the woods ? Of course he will but they will be different and genuine unlike the present incumbent who is still in total denial about the fact that the State will have to shrink by 15-20 percent over the next 3-5 years. Brown’s only aspiration is not to lose the next election or at least, hand Cameron a Pyrrhic Victory, we really don’t need another 5 years of Brown now do we ?