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Although obviously a Labour supporter, a regular contributor to the Independent is John Rentoul who often writes very interesting articles that concentrate on trying to analyse the issues rather than trotting out left wing propaganda, he is always worth reading.

His article in Sunday’s edition is very well worth a read: “How many years out in the cold?” Sub heading; “Labour is likely to lose the general election. Its main concern now is damage limitation “ http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-how-many-years-out-in-the-cold-1870275.html

The Key is Change

Obviously crystal ball gazing has its perils but John Rentoul has done very well in this article in trying to plot a way ahead. The political landscape has changed dramatically since Labour miscalculated the benefits for them as a party following Devolution with the consequence that the National Government will be decided in the English Shires and therefore there will no doubt be further retrenchment of the Celtic Nations and the Nationalist Parties. Should this be the case, without the Constitutional position being revisited, further troubles may lay in store, time for a major rethink perhaps ?

Although I wish to see a Cameron Government with a good working majority, I certainly agree that it is an open question as to whether Cameron will get one Parliament or two and the answer to that will centre on “events”. I have often wondered whether Margaret Thatcher would have got a second term without the Falklands War.

All parties are coalitions (broad tents and all that) but Cameron should be able to contain his ‘extreme wings’ during a first Parliament, his difficulties will only start with a second and particularly if the economic situation improves dramatically. But all that said, in a sense that is a projection on the future of a past patterns of behaviour, things may turn out rather different because the whole world has changed incredibly over these past 13 years.

Labour No Longer Fit to Govern

If we step aside from all the froth of the “Phoney War” phase of the current long election campaign, the reality is that Labour is no longer in any shape to govern, indeed I would suggest that they are in a worse state than even John Major was at the start of 1997.

The oddest sound bite I’ve heard from Brown was, “I will serve a full term.” What a totally Freudian slip but an illuminating one. How long would Brown last as Leader if he won the General Election ? Would the public accept another Labour disposition of Leader following an Election ?

Labour’s mistake was not to have dumped Brown a year ago, Brown’s was not to call the election last Autumn to keep the Party intact even if not in power. Labour needs some time in the wilderness, it needs time to evolve new talent, Cruddas and Purnell are potential but the rest have missed any chances they had, the next Labour Leader will be an interim one not the one that leads them back to potential power.

David Cameron is likely, the Key

The other factor which is the “Joker in the Pack” and will have most impact is Cameron himself. Whilst some will say he is this or that, what is becoming more than clear is that he is tough on his own people, is not an ideologue but is very pragmatic and that combination is what this Country needs in these changing times. The last time we had a truly pragmatic Prime Minister was Harold McMillan and he too came at a time of great change for the UK.

If I were to offer advice to any Prime Minister that takes power after this election, it would be simple: As we have no money for major programmes, get the whole of both Houses to concentrate on open debate and discussions on the Constitution of the UK, what changes may be possible, desirable and why. Don’t legislate just get serious discussions going starting with the “Separation of Powers”.

Beyond the Election

One of the real issues may well come as a consequence of Devolution and a reduction in the number of MPs. Cameron has promised 10% but if he went for more devolution of powers to the local level, especially within England, we need an even greater reduction in the number of MPs as we strengthen Local Democracy. Indeed the very nature of the job of an MP would change radically too.

I am not a fan of PR, Northern Ireland was inevitable for obvious reasons however the main reason I’m against PR is that the British and especially the English seem to like this rather black and white two party system. However, if we reduce the number of MPs to a more sensible 400, the “inequalities” inherent in first past the post get greater with larger constituencies.

Should Devolution then be revisited and a more “Federal System” evolved for the UK with seats in the Devolved Assemblies being also seats at Westminster for “X” days a week when the House sits as the “National Parliament” and the House becomes the English Parliament for the other “Y” days per week ? Properly this should include some thought as to “rebating” some tax revenues back to where (locally) they were collected and a division between Local and Federal Revenue. Do Turkeys vote for Thanksgiving and Christmas ?

No I’m not proposing this as a “policy” but I am using it to illustrate that there is an awful lot of thinking and debating about the Constitutional arrangements of the UK that could be done in the next Parliament.

The Liberal Democratic Party

With regard to the LibDems, their main problem today is that they need to regain the historical position of leading the “Radical Wing” of British politics that they lost to the Labour Movement over a century ago. Today they are mainly seen as “Tory Lite” which is a major tactical mistake that they have persisted in.

If I were them, I would expel Clegg and Hume from the Party and try and persuade Cruddas and Purnell to join them plus, get rid of the Coffee Mornings and get some party discipline, “Nice” doesn’t win in politics !