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The loss yesterday of the US Senate Seat held by Edward Kennedy for almost 50 years to the Republican Scott Brown is seen as a blow to the Obama Presidency on his first anniversary of becoming President. This can be seen as a great snub to his plans for Health Care Reform and so on but in a sense, this is an inevitable step along the way.

Rather like the marriage of Prince Charles to Lady Diana Spencer all those years ago, the “expectations” of an Obama Presidency – “Yes We Can.” far exceeded any reality on delivery in a recession. In this though lies some serious food for thought for David Cameron and his Team as they prepare for Government…

Reality Sucks

David Cameron has one major advantage over both Obama, Charles and Diana, no one sees him as a saviour or a “Golden boy”. All the talk of him “Not having sealed the deal with the electorate” plays to his advantage because all people will expect of him is to be a decent person who acts fairly and gets to grips with the UK’s precarious financial position.

However, with Gordon Brown and Labour deliberately lying about what it will take to recover from their profligacy whilst in power, Cameron can expect a fairly rough ride pretty much from the beginning and as the “Medicine” is applied, taxes rise, public sector jobs are cut and the Unions become very militant.

What Will Happen

Whilst in Opposition, the Conservatives did well in picking up Council Seats and gaining overall control of many Councils but the British Electorate is traditionally quite perverse in this respect because if the National Government is Party “A” then gradually during its term in Office, the public will vote Party “B” into the local councils.

In addition, a Conservative Government can expect to lose any by-elections to the LibDems or Labour. All of this will be as a direct consequence of the financial measures that any Government will have to take. Sadly, we can all look forward to Cameron getting similar headlines to Obama’s today after one year in Office, our journalists aren’t too bright either but, he needs to avoid worrying about it.

Luck Can Help…

It is extraordinary to think back to the first Thatcher Government, they were faced with a bad financial situation although not half as bad as the one Brown has created today as his legacy to the British people. I can remember at the time saying to friends that I couldn’t see the Conservatives getting a second term and then…along came the Falklands War which changed the picture completely.

The key to this was more than just a short and successful war with a positive outcome, it was the way that it united the Nation and how well the Government was perceived to have handled it on behalf of the Nation. Cameron doesn’t need a “war” but some kind of external threat that might involve trade or some particularly daft imposition by the EU, if he was seen to act decisively and successfully in Britain’s interests could give him a modern day “Falklands Factor” and a second term. Who knows ? It is in the lap of the Gods.

Country First

What has become totally clear is that Brown, quite apart from lacking in any political skills, is only focused in on himself, not the Country and not the Labour Party either, David Cameron needs to do far better. He needs to promote “This Country and its needs first, my Party second, me last.”

Cameron has proved to be quite a tough cookie with his own Party. He is obviously pragmatic rather than blindly pig headed as Brown is and I am sure that if the opportunity arises, we shall truly see a “One Nation Tory” in him. However and whatever else happens, we need David Cameron to be a true patriot and just concentrate on one thing only:

What is best for for the United Kingdom even if it means we don’t get a second term. If he and his Team take that attitude, I am fairly certain that “events” will deliver them the second term but also after one year in Office, they will get the same type of press that Obama gets today: “Where did it all go wrong ?” Keep the faith Dave, you will be fine and so will we.