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Well it is Sunday and yet another interesting article in the Independent by John Rentoul: http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-the-gents-definitely-for-turning-1980437.html

John’s article is worth a read. John Rentoul is ‘known’ as a Tony Blair fan and his insights into David Cameron, originally aired as the “Heir to Blair” are quite interesting because overall, his view is favourable but he does not see him as any kind of Blair clone at all.

Will the Coalition Last ?

John’s view is that it will, Cameron is deft and very smart plus, would the LibDems want to relinquish this first taste of power in generations ? As far as the Parliamentary Liberal Democratic MPs are concerned, I’m sure that they wouldn’t but that is only part of the story, the grass-roots party members may take a very different view in due course and especially when the going gets tough in the near future.

So it is against this background that David Cameron has to plan. Yes to the hope of a full 5 year term but also ready to continue in power as a Minority Government, if that is what happens but, only time will tell.

Someone wrote a comment that the coalition was a godsend to politicians so that they could ignore the wishes of both the electorate and party by dropping this policy and that on a whim. I didn’t think this fair so hence my reply to that…

The Way it Is

That is hardly a fair or realistic comment plus, the electoral result was only in the “gift” of the electorate and even then only by accident not, the politicians. If politics is “the art of the possible”, then in Cameron and Clegg, we likely have two excellent politicians.

There is always a large element of “Tribalism” in both the Labour and Tory vote as Labour’s turnout at the election demonstrated but, the battle is won or lost in the middle ground. ‘Ultra’ Tory and Labour supporters would both wish ‘their party’ in power with a majority sufficient to impose their ‘very worse policies’ so for now, this coalition is likely the best solution. Yes it has allowed Cameron to ditch some Tory policies that could not have been implemented at this time because of the current economic mess but, is that such a bad thing ?

Cameron is both smart and pragmatic and although a Tory majority was what he wanted, the current coalition is better for both him and his Party because a 20-30 majority would have left him a hostage to people like Bill Cash and the ‘hang ‘em high and flog them’ tendency in the Tory Party just as John Major’s Government became hog tied.

By giving the LibDems sufficient say, it will make the austerity programme easier to implement as well as implicating them in it. But he is smarter than that and where I part company with John Rentoul is over the durability of the Coalition, Cameron is doing the same to the “Tory Ultras” because he knows that the LibDems are likely to be forced to withdraw support at some stage due to the type of muddle class party members it attracts and their party constitution. The LibDem Parliamentary Party would sensibly, ‘hang on in there’ but the ‘grass roots’ are likely to object at some stage over one reason or another.

Beyond Five Years

At that point and as a minority Government, the Mervyn King ‘unpopularity’ comment kicks in and Cameron then can hold a pistol to the heads of the Ultras: “Back me or face a General Election right now and risk losing your seat”. Cameron is building a strong hand because however unpopular the consequences are of cutting the Deficit, because of the Coalition, in 5 years time he can say: “Yes we took tough decisions, yes it caused a lot of pain for all of us but, there was not one decision taken because of Tory Party Dogma, everything was done for all our good and the future of our Country.”

In comparison with a small 20-30 Conservative Government, he would have got nothing done without changes to Inheritance Tax, Fox Hunting and all the other things that are irrelevant to ordinary voters but would make him look disconnected from them and very much a “Toff”. The Conservatives would lose the next election and not get another crack at it for 10-15 years.

I like Cameron and think that he will do a very good possibly, even a startlingly good job, for sure I would say that he is far lighter on his feet than either Cable or Cash, don’t underestimate this man.