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The Independent in its infinite wisdom has decided to change the way it deals with readers comments on articles, a move designed to increase boredom and decrease any valid ‘debate’. I have lived through this before; It was contributing to the Telegraph that first led me to set up this blog back in November 2007 but they too decided to change their “readers comments” set-up and turn the whole thing to boring dross and now too the ‘Indy’ follows – Oh Well…there you go.

But the reason that I mention this is simply that of only a couple of regular Independent columnists worth reading, John Rentoul is one and the starting point for this particular blog was an entry he made on the ‘old system’ so whereas I would normally just give you a web link, as this may disappear into the ether, I have had to quote the key passages which I dislike because it is other people’s copyright:-

John Rentoul: The Hung Parliament Party – http://johnrentoul.independentminds.livejournal.com/408639.html

Having a Laugh

John started out by making fun of people like William Hague and indeed myself who warned against the ‘perils’ of a Hung Parliament but then goes on as follows:

“However, I am here not just to make fun of people but to make a serious point. Or, at least, Professor John Curtice is. He has crunched the election numbers and says this about the new electoral landscape:

the range of results that would now produce a hung parliament — anything from a Labour lead of just under three points to a Conservative one of 11 points — … is even greater than the equivalent range of 11 points after the 2005 election.

The hung parliament to which Britain awoke on 7 May was no accident. Thanks to the three changes we have identified, the system can no longer be relied upon to give either Labour or the Conservatives an overall majority if they only have a narrow lead in votes. Meanwhile the Conservatives cannot secure a majority even if they secure quite a substantial lead — such as the seven point lead they obtained on 6 May.

Doubtless those who campaign in the forthcoming referendum against switching from first past the post to the alternative vote will do so on the grounds that the change would make hung parliaments more likely. That is undoubtedly true. The only problem is we are likely to be stuck with them in future anyway.”

Makes You Think

This is all a bit “hindsight” stuff in the sense that it is based upon ‘number crunching’ and in that context, moving the goal posts a bit can make a major difference in ‘future outcomes’.

The following, I am not a ‘number nerd’ so offered in the spirit of ‘what if’: If the population boundaries were changed so that they were more equal, what impact ?

In Northern Ireland and for obvious reasons, people will still vote ‘tribally’ and despite PR ‘solutions’. In England and places like the North East where 60-70% of employment is Government related, the vote will always go to a profligate Labour Party because of maintaining the ‘workflow’ but beyond the Mersey, Tyne and the Scottish Glasgow/Edinburgh basin plus parts of South Wales, in the rest of the UK, things have moved on.

The reality is that elections are ‘decided’ in England and by ‘floating voters’ in relatively few constituencies and of course in these “Southern Fleshpots”, self interest has replaced Class and Tribal motives. On some issues we are pure Tory, on others a bit in the middle, we think – LibDem and yet again, we do want the ‘poor’ to be looked after or should that be “the deserving poor” ?

This Might be a One Off…

We are demographically, a series of nations in ‘total flux’ and whilst the Coalition Government currently looks fine, if we are honest, it really isn’t because whilst it will ‘work’ and be made to work very effectively, this will be down to just two people Cameron and Clegg.

In Cameron we are witnessing the emergence of a true “Heir to Disraeli”, he seems to be a total natural. He will be the ‘Master’ of Blair, Thatcher or any post war PM, is my personal opinion. However and also, despite my often written disrespect for the “LibDem NIMBY Party”, we are seeing the emergence of a truly brave man in Nick Clegg.

Cameron will always be subject to attack from his Right Wing Ultras just as Major was but, not only does he know this but clearly is “countering” early on. Nick Clegg knows he has done a ‘really smart thing’ in becoming part of the Government but unfortunately, he will be ‘bought down’ by the muddle class membership that is his ‘core party’ and their highly ‘democratic’ Constitution, Clegg is a brave man.

Where We are At

We have a David Cameron (Tory) Government where ‘partnering’ with the LibDems has allowed him to openly dump (Tory),Party Policies which even with a majority, would have been ‘Pie in the Sky’ given the current economic situation. Cameron has loads of ‘cover’, Clegg has little so will it last 5 years ? of course not, 4 only if it all went well but sadly, most likely two with a 6 month minority Government before the next General Election in the Autumn of 2012 and after the Olympics.

If you want to improve the voting system, I would ignore any change to FPTP in England and just move to a Federal Structure where Elected representatives from the Celtic Nations are also elected to the UK Federal Parliament which sits once a month (say), with for the other three weeks, Westminster being the “English Parliament”.