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There is a piece in the Sunday Telegraph today following their questioning of various Economists which produced a majority view that suggests that the Euro as a currency, is likely to cease to exist within the next 5 years and possibly sooner: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/7806064/Euro-will-be-dead-in-five-years.html

Obviously this has been bought about by the Greek crisis in particular and the state of the PIIGS generally however, it represents a far more interesting illustration of a fundamental flaw with the whole idea of the EU and in particular, the rather dubious methods employed by those who see themselves as the “Ruling Elite of Europe” to further their Federalist aims, one hears the distant rumble of the Tumbrils in the streets…

The Euro Crisis

Following the announcement of a substantial rescue package for Greece, the markets calmed for a short time but sadly, not for long and the main reasons are more political than financial, the markets in other words, doubt that Europe has the political will to do what is necessary in the medium and long term and frankly, they are probably correct in that assessment.

I am EU sceptic and feel quite strongly that the UK should not be in the EU as a member any longer, it is neither in our or the interests of other EU Members that we are. It is quite amusing in one sense to consider the very passionate arguments concerning our “Loss of Sovereignty” to Brussels advanced vociferously by many British anti-EU protesters.

This is an approach that has never worked “on the doorstep” during elections, the EU has never been a ‘vote winning or losing’ issue in the UK, people have become indifferent to it as a topic and probably vaguely think that ranting on about it, all a bit “Not a very British” thing to do. And yet, just as the MP’s expenses scandal galvanised British public opinion on politics and politicians, so too the Euro Crisis is likely to galvanise the whole of Europe and in the process, totally reshape it.

Build it and They Will Come…

The problem with the EU is that just like people during the Dot.Com Boom, they have steamed ahead on this project without any regard to ‘caution’ and in the mistaken belief that they are “ahead of the curve” and eventually the market and people will catch up with them shortly and be delighted with their “foresight” in building the facility. It is a mistaken strategy built upon arrogance, ignorance and ‘wish fulfilment’ but regardless of the ‘events’ are now overtaking the EU as rapidly as it did the dot.com businesses with likely similar outcomes – it goes bust.

The basic premise on which the Euro launched was that the Greek economy was totally equivalent to the German one, is obviously then and even more so now, total bollocks. But, was that really a surprise to anyone with a half functional brain, then or now ? There are however ‘consequences’ and the most interesting to my mind from the article in the Sunday Telegraph was that at least one person, put forward the idea that it could be Germany who leaves the Euro.

Ultimately…

The EU consists of principally just two Countries, France and Germany and it is the ‘tension’ between them that defines what the EU is and subsequently, whether the Euro survives and hereby hangs the tale.

On the one hand, France wants the EU if…it means that other EU countries and their ‘wealth’ serve French interests both domestic and foreign as the French see fit and without question. Germany on the other hand (the Tiger to be caged…), following the Second World War, has long sought “respectability” by burying it’s national identity inside the “European Project” but, things are about to change I suspect.

I am not sure that the French ‘Elite’ ever learn anything new, that quickly but the position of Germany is changing and in fairness, one might say rightly so and about time too. My Parents both born in 1920, were the generation that fought WWII, they have or are in the process of ‘passing on’, the people who caused the political background of those days, have long since died, today is a time for ‘moving on’. Germany has a proud post war democratic record and whether self imposed or implied externally by others, it is dangerous to continue with Germany bearing a “Nazi Guilt complex”, time to move forwards and the trigger for this seems to be Greece.

No more the German ‘Milch Cow’, the good burghers are not happy to bail out profligate other members of the Eurozone and any German politician who tried to make them, would face extreme difficulties, the worm has turned.

Not Taking the People With You…

The Euro Crisis illustrates the political folly of not “taking the people with you…” along the road to ‘ever closer union’, it represents the total failure of European politics and deservedly so. To me the whole idea of a common currency without first establishing a political/tax union, was obvious nonsense, even a child could have seen that one.

However, through their total arrogance and stupidity, the Brussels Elite embarked non the ‘Euro Project’ with exactly the same dishonest stealth tactics they had applied to everything else without realising that whilst ‘internal matters’ could be fudged and proceed secretly, an outward facing thing like a currency, is not the same thing at all, it is out of your control.

In the UK, London and the South East of England is the major income generator for UK plc but there is an acceptance that despite the mountain of tax revenues it produces, a major percentage of it is syphoned off to support other less prosperous parts of the UK rather than being spent in the South East. What is true of the UK is also true of the USA and indeed any country whether France or Germany too, you set out to create a decent living for all of your population.

However, this does not apply to a German thinking about Greece or indeed any EU Member thinking about any other EU country because they are not “blood”, they are foreigners and saying that is not xenophobic, it is a statement of fact. The EU’s failure has been to grasp this simple fact and deal with it both openly and fairly, as a result, this ultimately will be the rock on which the whole project will be broken.