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The other day Ed Balls admitted that if Labour came to power they would not promise to reverse the cuts in public expenditure currently being made by the Coalition Government. Frankly, the only comment one can make to that is “About time !” The reality is if and when Labour next comes to power, the political weather and economic climate will have changed, inevitably.

Although right now both this and the World generally face some difficult financial issues, these are perhaps just symptoms of other problems rather than the core disease. For a country like the UK, we are probably looking at a long term decline that started during the First world War which coincides with the rise of the Labour Party. One could speculate that solving this decline could also coincide with its (Labour’s), decline just as Communism collapsed with the Berlin Wall.

What is it For ?

The essential problem for Labour politicians is that whilst their grip on the working classes started to loosen during the 1960′s, by the Thatcher era of the 1980′s, it was substantially weakened and likely as a direct consequence of the excessive actions of Trade Unions during the 1970′s with Labour Governments being far too closely associated with them. In a sense, it wasn’t so much the Labour Party itself but their association with Trade Unions who were seen as having too much influence upon them, there is a lesson here too for the Tories and the City.

It was the Major government losing the Tories their “Good with the economy” credentials over the ERM fiasco that opened the way for the first Blair Government of 1997. However and due wholly to Gordon Brown an “old time Scottish Labour MP” that insisted on out of date redistributive fiscal policies, Labour was to lose that essential socialist plank, Income Redistribution through Tax and Benefits. Because of the Global Financial Crisis hitting just around the time Brown achieved his greatest ambition to be Prime Minister, the public reluctantly have come to realise today, as they go through cuts and a reduction in their standard of living, the country just cannot afford such nonsense.

Because I was brought up in South London in a working class area back in the 1950s, I still consider myself working class but, the real working class upon which Labour built its power base over 100 years ago, no longer exists. Even Trade Unions don’t represent “the working class”, they only represent sectional interests be they Teachers, Train Drivers and so on, groups of workers with interests specific to their jobs, they are no longer an idea that extends beyond their own membership or immediate cause – pension benefits.

If the Labour Party no longer represents the working class and its policies of tax and spend are totally discredited, just what are they for ?

Where They Are Today

John Rentoul wrote an interesting article in The Independent on Sunday: http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-this-is-new-all-right-it-just-isnt-enough-6289812.html from which I pick one quote:

“…will have done nothing to deter those who argue that Labour needs to field a different team.”

This really goes to the heart of the matter and the “poisoned chalice” the Blair/Brown feud bequeathed the Labour Party, a lost generation of up and coming Labour politicians. The key problem is that anyone who served in the Brown Government, particularly if they were prominent such as Balls/Cooper, Milibands both, are tainted and even when time has past and current problems make the past fade somewhat, it will still be the case. Opposition is always difficult if only because the Government of the day holds all the cards, it is difficult to look anything but rather impotent for most of the time in the public’s mind. This is made worse today by the inevitable narrowing of choice as dictated by the current economic situation.

In the end though, only change is constant and just like Cameron in opposition had to accept the then accepted wisdom that the economy was doing well under Brown and he would “share the proceeds of growth”, so too today Labour has to accept the logic of “cuts” albeit belatedly. But even that doesn’t matter too much – being late to acknowledge the reality, before they become electable again, they do need new people on the front bench and an as yet unknown, New Leader, this current lot just won’t do.

That they will need a new Leader, a totally fresh face and with “clean hands” from Labour’s past, is obvious but they will need far more too, they will need a new message and totally new definition of what Labour is For !

Immediate Business

I would suggest that the most important job the whole Labour front bench needs to focus on right now, has nothing to do with the economy, it is to do with the very survival of the Labour Party itself. Scottish independence would see an end to the party as we know it today and likely see a need for them to amalgamate with the LibDems. Labour desperately needs those 41 out of 59 Scottish Westminster seats in Scotland so, they need to get up there and fight not just for the Union but also for their own existence in England and Wales.

However and having said that, if Labour were shorn of the need to placate the “Old Style Membership” that Scottish Labour represents, they might make the transition to a new radical English/Welsh Party a lot quicker and an amalgamation with the LibDems easier. The Conservative Party learned some time ago that the support of Ulster Unionists was a bit of a poisoned chalice, for the Labour Party in England (where all eventual outcomes are decided electorally), they might find that a ‘distance’ between them and Scottish Labour is no bad thing so, a consolation prize is possible in this for them.

Unless things go terribly pear shaped, it is highly unlikely that Labour has even an outside chance of forming a Government in 2015, more like a Tory majority would be the outcome is my current guess so 2020 is the earliest chance for them but even that is questionable. Neil Kinnock was a dreadful Labour Leader in terms of national appeal but he did a good job as “Labour’s John the Baptist” of setting the stage for the Blair years, this current lot could do worse than emulate that because whatever the ‘Labour Cause’ now happens to be, its future will be radically different or else, it won’t have one.