For Heaven’s Sake Man

I cannot imagine a man less qualified to talk about Brexit than our former Prime Minister Tony Blair especially as without the restraining hand of Gordon Brown, the idiot would have had us abandoning Sterling and being part of the eurozone. The result of this would have been on a par or worse for the UK than the consequences of the Iraq war Blair got us into on the basis of total “misinformation” and flawed intelligence.

Regardless of which way they voted in the EU Referendum, I can’t imagine many who would give Blair much credence for telling the truth plus, he is clearly part of the political and wealthy elite who really didn’t understand what ordinary people were thinking or why they voted Leave.

What Happened

I find it surprising that anybody with any degree of intelligence can still be banging on about the result of the referendum 8 months later instead of focusing on how to make Brexit work for both the UK and the EU itself. Let’s walk it all back a little and put it into perspective:

David Cameron was pressing for reforms to the EU from ‘inside’ because clearly reform was needed. Unfortunately the EU is now a very broad tent and what might suit the northern or southern Europeans might not suit members recently emerging from Communist rule so the consequence was a clinging to the “EU Rulebook” which meant that any real reform within the EU as it stands is an impossibility. Therefore David Cameron came away with absolutely nothing, his political mistake was to try and sell that “nothing” to the British electorate instead of walking away and returning to negotiations at the end of 2017 when European general elections were over and done.

The EU was never a burning/election winning topic at anytime in the UK, so the referendum result to Leave was quite astonishing but in the medium to longer term, a stroke of great wisdom by the UK electorate because now the EU will have to face the reform it so desperately needs. The reason is a two way pincer movement, the EU budget loosing ten billion Euros a year when the UK leaves plus the pressures created by trying to support that currency (Euro) by any means possible.

I have always predicted that it will be the Euro that will destroy the EU as we know it today and it was this logic that whilst I voted Leave and expected Remain to win, I wasn’t fussed because the Euro would break the EU within 5 years anyway. You can put lipstick on a pig but it is still a pig and in this case the pig is called the Euro.

The Arrogance of Wealth

Like Gina Miller before him, Tony Blair not only doesn’t understand the concerns of ordinary people but also imagines that the world, his world, will always continue pretty much tomorrow as it has in the past when in fact it is already changing and changing rapidly. We are at one of those crossroads in human history when just about everything changes and there will be no going back.

It has long been accepted that the “typing pool” disappeared when companies gave everyone a PC and expected them to do their own work, that production lines ousted workers in favour of robotics but these were just the tip of a very large iceberg, the real changes are yet to take place as technology reaches into the world of the “professions”. This new revolution will see the middle classes suffer and from them will arise ‘Luddites’ for a new age complete with their university degrees.

The bottom line will be that society will have to reorganise itself completely with new work, tax welfare and education models emerging, we will be in a period of highly dynamic change but a lot of it will be experimental as some experiments fail. The key to social harmony will be openness and engagement both economically and politically, people need to have a voice and know that their voice is being heard. It is in this context that the UK not being part of the EU will be better because we have enough internal diversity to deal with and stream into one voice, being subject to a supra national body that lacks any kind of political demos would put us in the same boat as them and the same place too, up the creek without a paddle.

Fat rich boys like Blair need to either shut up or get with the program, the train left the station a long time ago Mr Blair, if you don’t like it go sit and sulk in your property empire. There can be no second referendum on what terms are agreed because it is likely that there will not be the same EU left to deal with in a couple of years time when negotiations are expected to conclude. In fact for our opposite numbers in the EU, dragging the negotiations out as long as possible so that the UK continues to pay in but has no effective voice within the EU whilst it drags on, is exactly what they would want. It is amazing that someone who held the highest Office in the land could be so dumb and naïve, he really is a looser, it must be his wife who is the clever one.

How We Can Help the EU

Whilst it is the folly of the Euro that will break the EU apart, the shock of Brexit and the loss of UK budget contributions when we leave is as good a wake up call as any to the EU. We need to be ruthless and Theresa May is quite right to threaten walking away if faced with obduracy during negotiations because us being sloppy is not going to help them. The EU needs to define for itself and publicly for the benefit of all EU citizens, exactly what it should be doing and those areas where it has, nor should it have any competence at all.

Whilst the EU will have a reduced budget, it is almost certain that the UK will continue to support some technical and scientific programs run under the aegis of the EU and therefore provide funding so the EU needs to focus on what areas this might apply to and just how ‘fair value’ for both sides is achieved when the UK is an ‘outsider’.

However in times of great change, the UK can provide some important leadership by example. As we experiment with different approaches to technology within society, we can share the lessons of our successes and failures with our EU friends, our successes can give them the ‘data’ they need to reform their “EU Rulebook”and that will be valuable to both them and us.

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