A Crossroad

A friend of mine sent me a link to an article in the Sunday Times written by David Davis exlaining why he felt he had no choice but to resign, it was an interesting article with which there is little to disagree on. It is interesting that even Peter Mandelson, a former EU Commissoner and general all round “EU Luvvie” considers Theresa May’s ‘offer’ so bad that he feels that a No Deal Brexit or Remaining in the EU would be a better outcome for Britain.

However the unfortunate aspect to negotiating Brexit has not been Brussels but the UK Remainers who dominate the Media and “Chattering Urban Classes” who have refused to accept the result of the Referendum, this has given comfort to our “enemies” and made May’s job even tougher than it should be and the result is this pig’s ear proposal but as they say, “it ain’t over until the fat lady sings”.

So What Next ?

We could be in for interesting times because with the key resignations from her Cabinet, one hopes that Mrs May has made her “best and final offer” but almost certainly the EU will reject her proposal which then given the time pressure could lead to the rather odd proposition which if she is smart she may well resort to. Up until now, not only has she had to deal with a divided Tory Party on the issue but the Opposition under Corbyn’s Labour Party has been next to useless due to their own splits over the EU so if the EU says ‘NO’ all she has to do is turn it over to Parliament on a ‘free vote’. Parliament would be faced with voting on either a No Deal or, rescinding Article 50 and remaining within the EU most MPs will crap their pants if faced with this on a free vote because whilst most MPs are pro EU, their constituents may not be so it will cost them their jobs come the next election and probably decimate the existing party political structures too.

It is a horrible situation for all politicians because if we end up under Mrs May’s proposals being an “EU Rule Taker” with no influence over those rules but bound by them, the Tory Party will be decimated though I doubt that Labour will benefit from it, the body politic will be in total disarray. Recall Article 50 and remain within the EU and Parliament will take a big hit to its authority and the Remain/Leave issue will explode onto the UK stage ensuring that it will be rerun at every election…

A No Deal declared now would be the best option because the EU will have to play catch up on essential mutual arrangements such as air travel etc. and we wouldn’t have to give them anymore cash beyond next March unless there was a very good quid pro quo involved. The worse scenario by far for both UK politicians and the EU would be for the UK to remain in the EU because come the next elections a “No Deal” promise party/coalition will form the next UK Government and the break then will be very sudden without any meaningful negotiations because the groundwork has been done already and the consequences chewed over endlessly in the here and now.

Before the result of the EU Referendum was announced, having voted Leave my expectation was to be on the losing side but I wasn’t fussed because in my view the EU has consistently refused to face its problems in the past particularly the Euro and those problems are probably now beyond resolution so the EU as we know it today is unlikely to last more than 5-10 years when effectively everyone will be leaving.

This situation with the UK and Brexit reminds me of moving house, I experienced the following and many people I’ve known have too. Perhaps at a moment in time property prices are booming in your local area, you don’t have a particular need to move but you have a look around, don’t find anything better worth moving to and therefore decide to stay where you are but oddly, once having thought about it, you find yourself moving house within the year.

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