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Archive for the ‘Economies’ Category

There was an Editorial in the Independent today, the aim of which was to “warn” the Conservatives in particular against cuts that cost Government jobs in economically depressed areas. This is all rather odd and a bit mixed up considering the “Indy” is no supporter of the Tories at any time !

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/leading-articles/leading-article-two-nations-once-more-2066181.html

However this is rather an odd article in another way because it fails to tackle the problems head on and instead ‘paddles’ in the shallows rather than applying any serious thinking to examining the core issues that lie behind this.

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I am not being cynical but, I do fail to understand all the fuss and faux anger aimed at the Emergency Budget the other day in some sections of the media as well as by deposed politicians such as Harmon, it is a total joke if not a pantomime. The reality of course is for all these people is to maintain the fiction that they are important and their job “matters” in some way – hilarious !

According to them, George Osborne and David Cameron have “duped” their LidDem Coalition partners and have set the Country on the road to a “Tory doctrine inspired Hell” whereas the reality is rather more simple: We have a massive Budget Deficit which includes a “Structural Element” of some £70 billion annually, the choice is to start cutting early or, keep trying to hide under the Duvet in the vague hope that it “might go away”.

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There is a piece in the Sunday Telegraph today following their questioning of various Economists which produced a majority view that suggests that the Euro as a currency, is likely to cease to exist within the next 5 years and possibly sooner: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/7806064/Euro-will-be-dead-in-five-years.html

Obviously this has been bought about by the Greek crisis in particular and the state of the PIIGS generally however, it represents a far more interesting illustration of a fundamental flaw with the whole idea of the EU and in particular, the rather dubious methods employed by those who see themselves as the “Ruling Elite of Europe” to further their Federalist aims, one hears the distant rumble of the Tumbrils in the streets…

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I am no economist and would not claim to understand the intricacies of this kind of fiscal deal over another but there does come a time when common sense rather than “technical sophistication” should and must takeover. Such a time seems fast approaching for the current situation over the Euro.

There is an interesting article in the Times today concerning Greece: “The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), a London-based consultancy, has warned Greek ministers they will be unable to escape their debt trap without devaluing their own currency to boost exports. The only way this can happen is if Greece returns to its own currency.” Worth checking it out.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article7140270.ece

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The other day, David Cameron and Nick Clegg presented their 34 page detailed document to outline the details of the Coalition agreement. The general consensus was that the Conservatives had given more ground than the LibDems on their Election Manifestos. An interesting observation but not one I suspect will stand the test of time.

The one thing I’ve always liked about Cameron and despite the odd stumble since he became Tory Leader and had to ‘learn on the job’, is it became clear that he was a pragmatist not a dogmatist and one suspects, as others have commented, he has used the coalition as an excuse to ‘off-load’ a number of Tory Policies that frankly wouldn’t play well in these straightened times.

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“Politics is the art of the possible” and all the ‘blather’ from both pro and anti EU people will not change the hard fact that the reason the “Lisbon Treaty” was not put to a Referendum here as in most other EU Countries because as in the Netherlands and France disguised as the “EU Constitution” it would have been rejected outright across a majority of EU countries.

In the UK this may, indicate an ‘Insular Mentality’ or, an ‘audience quite prepared to be sold’ the concept. There will never be a “Sales Text Book” written that does not point out that ‘objections’ are in fact ‘buying signals’ that just call for further information to confirm the deal.

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Well there are now only three days left and then we all get to vote and what the public has probably decided already will shape our immediate futures. My hope is that we (a). Don’t have a Hung Parliament and (b). They we do get a Cameron Government with a working majority. Will I get my wish ?

Hard to say really, I suspect that the average elector is playing their cards close to their chests. On the surface, Labour is dead in the water, Clegg and the LibDems are deflating and Cameron is in the ascendant but what that will translate into on Friday, who knows ? However, one of the most crucial events that any new Government will be faced with is the Greek Financial Crisis with its impact on both the Eurozone and the whole EU.

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A group of protesters has forced the Government to review the approval for the expansion of Heathrow with a third runway: http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/leading-articles/leading-article-heathrows-clipped-wings-1928764.html

Whilst it is true to say that behind these protests is more than just a pinch of NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard), rather than as they would wish to project “people of real principles”, there is no harm in that, Magna Carta was cynically signed by all the parties involved but became the “right thing” in the end never-the-less.

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Whilst I could never understand the economic rationale behind setting up the Eurozone which was always a total nonsense to me, the political case was obvious for those who believed in a “United States of Europe”, another nonsense if ever there was one. But whilst I have no love for either, I certainly wish them no harm because the UK is outside the Eurozone and hopefully in due course we shall be outside of the EU too.

The Media is full of stories about the economic crisis in Greece which is in the Euro but in deep shit because of the way it ran its budget therefore the question is: “Will the richer Eurozone countries bail Greece out ? Is this the first test for the Euro and will the currency fail if they can’t or don’t do so ?” To be honest the real problem has nothing to do with this in any case in my opinion…

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I often comment via the readers pages to articles in the Press and likely these often motivate to expand my thinking on any particular topic in this blog and particularly when you have ‘companions’ who although they may have different political views, share a common interest in looking for current answers or solutions.

One such person who I met via the Independent is called John and we were discussing an article by Andrew Grice last Saturday when he posed some interesting questions, this blog entry is an attempt to answer those: http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/andrew-grice/andrew-grice-bad-case-of-jitters-on-tory-bandwagon-provides-a-test-of-nerve-for-cameron-1838772.html

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