Probably the Right Move

Theresa May’s announcement that she would seek a vote in Parliament to call a snap general election is probably the right move on a number of important levels and especially with regard to the Brexit negotiations. Regardless of the opinion polls which show a huge margin over Labour, if in the end she can increase her majority to 30/40 seats in the House of Commons, she will be far better placed both domestically and in Brussels to deliver a good deal for both sides.

Of course, a landslide victory is unlikely given the partisan nature of politics in the Celtic Nations. Continue Reading →

Only Betrayal Is Certain

Whoever wins the Conservative Leadership contest and therefore becomes our next Prime Minister from this wholly unattractive bunch of candidates, only one thing is certain, the vote on Brexit will be largely betrayed, none of them have the courage, determination or vision to follow through on that and try to lead Europe away from a peril of its own making by really shaking the EU up.

Whilst I previously tipped Theresa May to be our next Prime Minister, that was in mind if Remain had won as was expected because David Cameron regardless of the outcome, would have lost his job due to his irrational behaviour during the campaign – http://baldysblog.co.uk/2016/05/30/a-political-suicide/ Continue Reading →

Moving On – The Tory Leadership

Whilst I was surprised by the Referendum result and others will no doubt be dismayed, it is to say the least something of a disappointment the amount of whining from those who backed or assumed Remain would win. Whilst David Cameron was visibly shaken on Friday morning and as the result ended his front bench political career earlier than expected, I hope he gets over his sulk and gets on with being Prime Minister for the duration of the leadership contest.

Although I think it should have been obvious to him, as I wrote previously, the way he and George Osborne conducted the campaign, ensured that regardless of the result, his time at No.10 was already over. http://baldysblog.co.uk/2016/05/30/a-political-suicide/ Continue Reading →

A Political Suicide

As we draw closer to 23rd June, the IN/OUT campaigns are heating up, the rhetoric becoming ever more intense and the media are turning their attention to the likely state of the Tory Party after this is all done and dusted. We can expect to see many stories from “party insiders” in the coming weeks but frankly and whatever the outcome of the Referendum, the simple truth will be that David Cameron’s front bench political career is coming to a close and probably far sooner than he intended.

The “why” is interesting but only time and after various memoirs are published in future years will we have a better insight into the background and motivations for what looks like a very public political suicide on David Cameron’s part. Continue Reading →

George and Porkies

Today George Osborne launched the full weight of the Government machine behind the Remain camp in the shape of an “economic projection” of what would happen to the UK if we vote to leave the EU. The argument David Cameron has used before is that as “Remain” is the government’s position, it is right that this should happen however, I suspect that it is a tactical mistake for the Tory Party.

The current Cabinet members who support the Remain position and those that support the opposite should both exercise restraint, the Referendum will be over in less than 10 weeks and regardless of the outcome, people will still have to work together or fall together. Given who the Labour Party is currently led by, it must be the patriotic duty of every Tory to strive for unity and the avoidance of a premature General Election. Continue Reading →

The Ids of March

There was rather a good article in the Telegraph by James Kirkup on the sudden resignation of Iain Duncan Smith, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/12198707/The-real-reason-Iain-Duncan-Smith-resigned-and-what-it-means-for-George-Osborne-and-David-Cameron.html

It is a good piece and of course the main question is “Just how damaging is it to the Government ?” Whilst that is an interesting question, but as this is no Geoffrey Howe moment with Margaret Thatcher, it may take quite a time before a clear answer is forthcoming. Sorry about the headline but it was irresistible with or without an ‘e’. Continue Reading →

It’s the Economy Stupid !

The above quote attributed to the former US President Bill Clinton sums up the key issue that the Remain In the EU camp will target in it’s campaign to persuade the UK electorate to vote to stay in and is encapsulated in the “Leap into the dark…” phrase used by David Cameron. This of course is just a variation on the “X thousand UK jobs depend on us being in the EU…” used under the previous Labour Government.

As a tactic based upon “Cling to nurse for fear of worse…” it is a powerful message because voters won’t want to risk their jobs and economic well being especially for a non mainstream topic such as EU membership. However, is it true or to be more accurate just how much of a leap into the unknown is remaining compared to leaving ? The answer isn’t obvious. Continue Reading →

Politics at By-Elections

There was quite a fun piece in the Telegraph by Asa Bennett and Laurence Dodds where they used statistics to demonstrate what any reduction in Labour’s vote in Oldham’s by election would mean if extrapolated right across the UK:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12025058/What-would-it-mean-for-Labour-to-lose-the-Oldham-West-and-Royton-by-election.html

As they point out, this is not the way things work in the real world and no by election result can really be used to accurately predict the outcome of a General Election but it leads to some interesting thoughts… Continue Reading →

Never a Good Look

There are plenty on the Right who don’t like David Cameron, for them he just “isn’t right wing enough”, these are people who lack any grasp of the realities of politics. Like their extreme Left wing counter parts among socialists, these people are essentially bullies both blind and deaf to all reason, they want the world to be the way they imagine that it ‘should be’ rather than face the messy reality of what it actually is.

But whilst they are predictable, both boring and boorish, it is sad to see someone like Lord Ashcroft behaving like a spoilt child by publishing a rather questionable ‘biography’ the only purpose of which is to vent spite on Cameron because he felt that he wasn’t given enough acknowledgement after the 2010 election. However you cut it, for Ashcroft this really isn’t a ‘good look’, the man diminishes himself by funding such obvious and childish bile, very sad to see it in a grown man.

The Key EU Reforms

It is not odd I suppose that one month in and the promise of a Referendum on EU membership against the background of a “surprise” Conservative election victory a month ago and the issue of the EU is pretty dominant. Having already written my last couple of blogs on the topic, I would not normally return to the same topic so soon except perhaps the situation demands it.

This is not really to do with just the negotiations themselves which are yet to take place but to do with the various ‘positioning’ taking place both domestically and abroad. Whilst this is understandable, it is more important to keep the focus on the main goal. Continue Reading →