The Problem is Still the Euro

As I have written before, my view last June when I voted to ‘Leave’ was that ‘Remain’ would win by at worse 60/40 and more likely 70/30 so I was as surprised as the next person to wake up that Friday morning and find that we had voted for Brexit. However and despite my expectations for being on the losing side, it wouldn’t have troubled me over much because my belief was and still is that the EU as we know it today, will not exist in 5 years time and the reason ?

Simply the existence of the Euro and the fact that it is so poorly constituted that even the countries that are part of the eurozone must question whether it is a good idea. The question today as we gear up for Brexit negotiations is whether the unreality and Alice in Wonderland world created by it, are already spilling over into those negotiations. Continue Reading →

Brexit Is Not Xenophobia

Although hopefully it can be salvaged, the current state of the CETA trade treaty between Canada and the EU is a perfect illustration of just why the UK leaving the EU is the correct decision going forward. For those who don’t know, the deal was rejected by the Wallonia Parliament exercising its right under the Belgian federal constitution which meant that Belgium couldn’t ratify the deal which means the deal can’t go forward as all member states must agree.

Canada unlike the USA, the latter with its very many global corporate giants, does not represent any great ‘threats’ to the ‘European way of doing things’ so obstructing this deal is strange to say the least and certainly bodes ill for any success in more contentious trade deals with countries like the USA, India and China. As for a ‘smooth’ exit for the UK from the EU, I suspect that we can discount that upfront, it is just not going to happen, whatever the deal, there will always be another Wallonia and we need to accept that right now. Continue Reading →

The Outline Deal

I thought it very amusing to see Junker insisting that once there was a new UK Prime Minister he would expect an immediate clarification of their negotiation goals overlooking deliberately perhaps that the Leave camp was drawn from different political parties so there could not be a set of clear aims during the campaign, those could only appear after a victory. Junker really is a silly old fool so I’ll try and help him out.

Obviously because of the circumstances of the referendum result plus the fact that the Government had only made financial plans to deal with an unexpected Leave victory, there is quite a bit of confusion and the appearance of a power vacuum. To give George Osborne credit, he has stepped up as Chancellor making public statements to reassure the ‘markets’ and acknowledged that he could not realistically stand for the Tory Leadership because of his part in the campaign. Continue Reading →

Moving On – The Tory Leadership

Whilst I was surprised by the Referendum result and others will no doubt be dismayed, it is to say the least something of a disappointment the amount of whining from those who backed or assumed Remain would win. Whilst David Cameron was visibly shaken on Friday morning and as the result ended his front bench political career earlier than expected, I hope he gets over his sulk and gets on with being Prime Minister for the duration of the leadership contest.

Although I think it should have been obvious to him, as I wrote previously, the way he and George Osborne conducted the campaign, ensured that regardless of the result, his time at No.10 was already over. http://baldysblog.co.uk/2016/05/30/a-political-suicide/ Continue Reading →

A War Started by Railway Timetables

Many years ago there was a highly entertaining and very serious British historian called A J P Taylor ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A._J._P._Taylor ) who wrote many books and was very successful in presenting his subject on TV too. I had become interested in history whilst still at primary school although I approached the subject from the perspective of military history initially which actually was a pretty reasonable starting point given the nature of most of human history.

However, it was through A J P Taylor that I really started to get better grasp of ‘history in the round’ and an understanding of how things often repeated themselves in principle though never quite in the same way. Continue Reading →

Finally We Get There

Finally the other day, David Cameron talked about the one key issue in the EU Referendum debate, the question of Security, although the conclusions he drew were totally wrong and his advice to the electorate to vote ‘Remain’ should be ignored because his view is far too narrow and fails to grasp the significance of the times we live in.

Regardless of your personal view of the EU and however you intend to vote on June 23rd, there can be absolutely no doubt that a peaceful and prosperous Europe is totally in the best interests of the United Kingdom, the real debate is upon how this is best achieved and in the context of our Referendum, whether voting to Leave will serve that aim better than voting to Remain. Continue Reading →

More EU Nonsense

Whilst in a sense the following is a bit tedious because it touches on key points that I have made previously with regard to the UK IN/OUT Referendum this June, is it anymore tedious than the general level of ‘debate’ in the UK Media ? Of course with Local and regional Elections in May, the full ‘noise’ of the Referendum will only really descend upon us from May 6th onwards.

However and as an example of the wrong thinking with the ‘Remain’ camp of which The Economist is a leading light was the following article: http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21696517-most-estimates-lost-income-are-small-risk-bigger-losses-large-economic Continue Reading →

The Argument Has Moved On

I would suggest that when it comes to the UK referendum on continued membership of the EU, both the “Remain” and “Leave” camps fail to realise that in reality, the whole basis of the ‘debate’ has rather moved on and both of them are fighting past battles not the present one. An example of this came in an article in The Economist, a totally pro EU publication: http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21695056-talk-taking-back-power-may-be-delusional-more-democracy-not-dreaming-sovereignty

Their argument is that whilst recovering British sovereignty may be a disillusion objective, getting more democracy into the EU would be a good idea. Such a posture is of course just not possible by the very nature of the beast due to how it is structured. Continue Reading →

London as a World Capital

There was an article in The Economist by James Rubin who was assistant secretary of state for public affairs in the Clinton administration. In it he was saying that London had become the “World’s capital” and leaving the EU would lead to an end of such status. An interesting view if rather a narrow one: http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21694019-former-assistant-secretary-state-makes-case-staying-european-union-should Continue Reading →

Only Two Weeks In…

It is quite amazing to realise that it is only two weeks since David Cameron came out of a EU Summit declaring “Peace in our time…or Special Deal”. Unfortunately, it was all too obvious from that moment that his special deal was largely a great big dud but in one sense, that didn’t matter too much because it was not the thing that would swing the vote, most people aren’t interested in the details, they will vote on a gut instinct more than anything else.

With three and a half months to go plus Local and Regional Elections in May, the real EU campaign is likely to be sandwiched into a hectic few weeks, mid May to late June and to be frank, I have a growing suspicion that the outcome will be for leaving the EU. Continue Reading →