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Posts Tagged ‘Foreign Policy’

I have little time for “conspiracy theories”, in the UK Cock Up is far more the norm than any individual or group of individuals trying to manipulate ‘outcomes’ but there is one aspect of the Duke of York “story” that does interest me which an editorial in The Independent almost accidentally touched upon.

Namely that it (the story), has taken off since the Wikileaks mention of the reaction of an American diplomat to the Prince and his comments over the SFO investigation into the al-Yamamah arms deal with the Saudi Arabian government of 30 years ago, a contract the US always resented the UK wining.

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It would be hard for anyone from the UK with, however frustrating at times, a settled democracy won by our forefathers to fully understand just how the people of Egypt must be feeling right now. For them the whole experience of toppling what was, still is, a Police State by peaceful means must seem like achieving an “Impossible Dream” or climbing Mount Everest so well done to all of them and all of good faith must send them best wishes for a happy future.

Of course it will not be easy, the road ahead for them is strewn with many thorny problems but… If they can do this, why should they not also “do that” ?

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There was a report published the other day by a Right of Centre, Think Tank called Policy Exchange ( http://www.policyexchange.org.uk/ ). Read it for yourself, I am sure that there will be those that ‘object’ but the truth is that this organisation is no ‘Fascist Outfit’ and is in most things, intelligently directed and driven by thinking people.

The report in essence, suggests that the UK should involve itself in a renegotiation of the way this Court works over some two years and failing any reasonable progress, withdraw from its jurisdiction, make the UK Supreme Court the ultimate arbiter whilst “noting any suitable judgements made by the ECHR” along the way and over future years: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/8307782/UK-should-withdraw-from-European-Court-of-Human-Rights.html

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Following on from the recent events in Tunisia, The Yemen and now Egypt, it looks as though there is a degree of revolution in the air and potential changes in Leaders and Regimes that may well threaten Western interests both politically and economically. Inevitably under the current circumstances, there will be a fear of Muslim Extremists stepping into any political vacuum that opens up during this time of change.

However, the reality is that whether in these countries, Saudi Arabia or a number of others, change was always going to happen sooner or later and it may well be that now, might be more favourable to Western interests than possibly at any other time if only, because now it is not just a matter of “American or Western Interests” alone, it also involves China and India.

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It was interesting to me, at least to see a contributor to the Independent newspaper finally, picking up on Dwight Eisenhower’s warnings shortly before leaving Office as the US President.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/ike-was-right-all-along-the-danger-of-the-militaryindustrial-complex-2186133.html

Although the article was interesting, it was written for the wrong reasons by someone who seems oblivious to the political realities at play here (Rupert Cornwell). The “Industrial/Military Complex” that Eisenhower pointed to in the US has some resonance in the UK but not quite in the same way and it is important to understand the differences and from that, the way forward in looking at this problem.

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There was an interesting article by Patrick Cockburn in today’s Independent on the situation in Afghanistan and particularly a desire by some in the US Military to conduct “Hot Pursuit” operations over the Pakistani border with Afghanistan which he likened to US operations in Cambodia during the Vietnam war.

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/patrick-cockburn-nixon-adopted-this-tactic-in-vietnam-it-wont-work-any-better-now-than-it-did-then-2166495.html

In a sense, the whole concept of “Hot Pursuit” is a Red Herring because if you can’t capture or kill your ‘enemy’ on your side of the border, you are hardly likely to do any better by crossing it. Also and let us be honest, if the enemy is within your gun sights, that they have crossed an imaginary line, won’t stop you pulling the trigger either.

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As yet another major EU Summit is upon us, there is the usual uproar in the right wing British Press about ‘loss of sovereignty” and EU Budget increases, on the whole I agree with much of the sentiments, the EU is a crock of shit. However and oddly, I’m starting to see it increasingly as less of a threat to us in the UK because I suspect that it is crumbling and like the Hapsburg Empire, will before long be but a thing of the past.

Will it leave a legacy ? Perhaps in terms of a very reduced Eurozone based around Northern European countries that can be “trusted” by the Germans not to “Go Greek” on them. There is a very interesting article on the BBC site by Gavin Hewitt that is worth a read : http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/gavinhewitt/2010/10/unpopularity_and_the_eu.html

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Given the current economic circumstances the defence review was always going to be extremely difficult, the two aircraft carriers that would cost more money to cancel them to continue building is a case in point. The further factor that would have a impact on such review is obviously the on-going war in Afghanistan which by its very nature, is going to distort any strategic concept that would go behind such a review.

The question still lies in really what kind of future war should we be preparing for and it is in this context that we need to look at how successful this defence review has been. Or might it be said that under the given current circumstances a defence review based purely on a “National Strategy” was a task to far however, given that there had not been a defence review for over a decade the coalition government had very little choice in the matter.

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By and large, I have always been of the view that it makes sense to replace the Trident Missile Submarines when required which is, I understand, in about 20 years time however and such is the gestation period of these things, we must start now. True, given the parlous state of the UK Finances, better not to have to find the estimated £20 billion cost but…

It should be the purpose of any personal blog to explore and consider ‘ideas’ that are outside of the mainstream or at the very least, “question” the current perceived wisdom. Wednesday bought the following: “The government should scale back the UK’s Trident nuclear deterrent to save money, a think tank has said. The Royal United Services Institute urged ministers to consider dropping the requirement of always having a nuclear submarine on patrol at sea.” http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-10784192

This has prompted a number of thoughts…

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There was an interesting piece in the Independent concerning the murder of 10 Charity Workers in Afghanistan: http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/leading-articles/leading-article-aid-workers-and-armed-force-2047112.html

Whilst the British Media will inevitably concentrate on the one Briton killed, the following quote from this article, does provoke some thought:

“But the dependence of aid workers on the military for security, and the reliance of the military on aid organisations for the civilian reconstruction projects that are vital to winning over the local population, make for a volatile mix that risks endangering all concerned.”

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